PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Moreirense 1–0 Tondela · Primeira Liga

1–0Historical match

Tondela

WLLLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Moreirense won 1–0.

Shots
78
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
0.420.5
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Moreirense beat Tondela 1–0. Recorded in this match (Moreirense – Tondela): shots 7–8, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 0.42–0.5, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Moreirense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Moreirense's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.44 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots8 shotsMoreirense 7 shots, Tondela 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsMoreirense 2 shots, Tondela 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.42 xG0.5 xGMoreirense 0.42 xG, Tondela 0.5 xG
  • Possession58%42%Moreirense 58%, Tondela 42%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersMoreirense 4 corners, Tondela 2 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls13 foulsMoreirense 7 fouls, Tondela 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardMoreirense 1 card, Tondela 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kiko Bondoso · Moreirense · 7′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuís Semedo · Moreirense · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDiogo Travassos · Moreirense · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaranhão · Tondela · 43′ · 0.04 xG · on targetYaya Sithole · Tondela · 80′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCedric Teguia · Moreirense · 3′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMaranhão · Tondela · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJordan Siebatcheu · Tondela · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaranhão · Tondela · 67′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCicero · Tondela · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Assis · Moreirense · 11′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJuan Rodríguez · Tondela · 48′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlan · Moreirense · 66′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJordan Siebatcheu · Tondela · 26′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMaracás · Moreirense · 62′ · 0.13 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Moreirense: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.42 xG. Tondela: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.50 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Maracás · Moreirense · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Moreirense 0.42 xG · Tondela 0.50 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Moreirense
0Draws
1Tondela
Moreirense — Tondela · Primeira Liga2–0
Tondela — Moreirense · Primeira Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Moreirense favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Tondela in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Moreirense18 matchesTondela18 matches
1.44 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/180.78 goals/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.72 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲ 1.2 xG/match
9.83 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 11.4 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on target18/183.67 shots/match
50.3% ●Possession18/1843.3%
4.06 corners/match ●Corners18/183.83 corners/match
2.82 cards/matchCards17/172.94 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1814.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Jan 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMoreirenseTondela
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headMoreirense — Tondela
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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