PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio João Cardoso

Tondela 3–1 FC Arouca · Primeira Liga

Tondela

LWLLL
3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Tondela won 3–1.

Shots
511
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
0.670.73
Possession
29%71%

Full time

What the match recorded

Tondela beat Arouca 3–1. Recorded in this match (Tondela – Arouca): shots 5–11, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 0.67–0.73, possession 29%–71%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Tondela's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tondela's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.82 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots5 shots11 shotsTondela 5 shots, FC Arouca 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsTondela 3 shots, FC Arouca 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.67 xG0.73 xGTondela 0.67 xG, FC Arouca 0.73 xG
  • Possession29%71%Tondela 29%, FC Arouca 71%
  • Corners2 corners9 cornersTondela 2 corners, FC Arouca 9 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsTondela 12 fouls, FC Arouca 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 cardTondela 3 cards, FC Arouca 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alfonso Trezza · Arouca · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlfonso Trezza · Arouca · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJose Fontán · Arouca · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Santos · Arouca · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYefrei Rodriguez · Tondela · 60′ · 0.02 xG · goalNaïs Djouahra · Arouca · 30′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEmmanuel Maviram · Tondela · 12′ · 0.04 xG · goalIvan Barbero · Arouca · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJordan Siebatcheu · Tondela · 5′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlfonso Trezza · Arouca · 31′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAlfonso Trezza · Arouca · 83′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlfonso Trezza · Arouca · 15′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJose Fontán · Arouca · 45′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJordan Siebatcheu · Tondela · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAlfonso Trezza · Arouca · 8′ · 0.31 xG · goalJordan Siebatcheu · Tondela · 34′ · 0.46 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Tondela: 5 shots, 3 on target, 0.69 xG. Arouca: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Emmanuel Maviram · Tondela · 12′Jordan Siebatcheu · Tondela · 34′Yefrei Rodriguez · Tondela · 60′Alfonso Trezza · Arouca · 8′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Tondela 0.69 xG · Arouca 0.75 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Tondela
1Draws
1FC Arouca
Tondela — FC Arouca · Primeira Liga2–2
FC Arouca — Tondela · Primeira Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Tondela favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · FC Arouca in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Tondela17 matchesFC Arouca18 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored17/18▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.76 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/182.39 goals/match
1.25 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/170.68 xG/match
11.6 shots/match ▲Shots17/189.44 shots/match
3.76 shots/match ▲Shots on target17/183 shots/match
43.4%Possession17/18● 49.9%
3.94 corners/matchCorners17/18● 4 corners/match
3.06 cards/matchCards16/173.06 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls17/1813.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTondelaFC Arouca
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headTondela — FC Arouca
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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