PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio José Gomes

CF Estrela Amadora 3–3 Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga

3–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

CF Estrela Amadora and Sporting Braga drew 3–3.

Shots
1110
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
1.013.3
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Estrela and SC Braga drew 3–3. Recorded in this match (Estrela – SC Braga): shots 11–10, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 1.01–3.3, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Estrela's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Estrela's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estrela have a visible home split

moderate

Estrela's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Estrela show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Estrela's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsEstrela · SC Braga13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricEstrelaSC BragaBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match13.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match8.72 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots10 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 11 shots, Sporting Braga 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsCF Estrela Amadora 4 shots, Sporting Braga 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.01 xG3.3 xGCF Estrela Amadora 1.01 xG, Sporting Braga 3.3 xG
  • Possession42%58%CF Estrela Amadora 42%, Sporting Braga 58%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersCF Estrela Amadora 5 corners, Sporting Braga 7 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls8 foulsCF Estrela Amadora 14 fouls, Sporting Braga 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardCF Estrela Amadora 2 cards, Sporting Braga 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Vítor Carvalho · SC Braga · 27′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJovane Cabral · Estrela · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBernardo Schappo · Estrela · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlisson Souza de Jesus · Estrela · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPau Víctor · SC Braga · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKikas · Estrela · 16′ · 0.07 xG · goalJovane Cabral · Estrela · 35′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlisson Souza de Jesus · Estrela · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKikas · Estrela · 35′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedVítor Carvalho · SC Braga · 79′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJovane Cabral · Estrela · 69′ · 0.25 xG · goalRodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 64′ · 0.28 xG · goalAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 73′ · 0.30 xG · goalPau Víctor · SC Braga · 82′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedFran Navarro · SC Braga · 6′ · 0.59 xG · on targetFran Navarro · SC Braga · 51′ · 0.64 xG · on targetJoão Moutinho · SC Braga · 12′ · 0.82 xG · goalFran Navarro · SC Braga · 51′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Estrela: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.00 xG. SC Braga: 10 shots, 6 on target, 3.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Kikas · Estrela · 16′Jovane Cabral · Estrela · 69′Abraham Marcus · Estrela · 73′João Moutinho · SC Braga · 12′Fran Navarro · SC Braga · 51′Rodrigo Zalazar · SC Braga · 64′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Estrela 1.00 xG · SC Braga 3.95 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0CF Estrela Amadora
1Draws
3Sporting Braga
CF Estrela Amadora — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga0–1
Sporting Braga — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga1–1
Sporting Braga — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga3–0
CF Estrela Amadora — Sporting Braga · Primeira Liga2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Estrela Amadora favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Sporting Braga in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Estrela Amadora18 matchesSporting Braga18 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 1.83 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.11 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲ 1.89 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 13.6 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲ 5.11 shots/match
48.8%Possession18/18● 64.8%
3.61 corners/matchCorners18/18● 5.83 corners/match
2.76 cards/matchCards17/172.06 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF Estrela AmadoraSporting Braga
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCF Estrela Amadora — Sporting Braga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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