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Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio da Madeira

CD Nacional 3–1 Tondela · Primeira Liga

3–1Historical match

Tondela

DDLWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

CD Nacional won 3–1.

Shots
821
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
2.353.28
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nacional beat Tondela 3–1. Recorded in this match (Nacional – Tondela): shots 8–21, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 2.35–3.28, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Tondela's recent record differs from the season

weak

Tondela's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots21 shotsCD Nacional 8 shots, Tondela 21 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsCD Nacional 4 shots, Tondela 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.35 xG3.28 xGCD Nacional 2.35 xG, Tondela 3.28 xG
  • Possession44%56%CD Nacional 44%, Tondela 56%
  • Corners3 corners10 cornersCD Nacional 3 corners, Tondela 10 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls17 foulsCD Nacional 11 fouls, Tondela 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards6 cardsCD Nacional 5 cards, Tondela 6 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tiago Manso · Tondela · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaranhão · Tondela · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaranhão · Tondela · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIvan Cavaleiro · Tondela · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaranhão · Tondela · 72′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAfonso Rodrigues · Tondela · 82′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIvan Cavaleiro · Tondela · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJuan Rodríguez · Tondela · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLiziero · Nacional · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTiago Manso · Tondela · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Maviram · Tondela · 49′ · 0.04 xG · goalMaranhão · Tondela · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJuan Rodríguez · Tondela · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 68′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIvan Cavaleiro · Tondela · 73′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYarlen · Tondela · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJordan Siebatcheu · Tondela · 25′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHugo Félix · Tondela · 37′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedIvan Cavaleiro · Tondela · 74′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAfonso Rodrigues · Tondela · 87′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 90′ · 0.28 xG · goalJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 11′ · 0.56 xG · off target or blockedZe Vitor · Nacional · 68′ · 0.59 xG · goalHugo Félix · Tondela · 54′ · 0.74 xG · off target or blockedMaranhão · Tondela · 37′ · 0.82 xG · on targetJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goalJordan Siebatcheu · Tondela · 90′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nacional: 8 shots, 4 on target, 2.41 xG. Tondela: 21 shots, 5 on target, 3.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Ze Vitor · Nacional · 68′Paulinho Bóia · Nacional · 90′Jesús Ramírez · Nacional · 90′Emmanuel Maviram · Tondela · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nacional 2.41 xG · Tondela 3.36 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CD Nacional favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Tondela in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CD Nacional14 matchesTondela15 matches
1.07 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/150.67 goals/match
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/151.8 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals14/141.25 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots14/15▲ 12.1 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target14/153.8 shots/match
42.5%Possession14/15● 44.1%
4.29 corners/match ●Corners14/153.93 corners/match
3.36 cards/matchCards14/143.14 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1514.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 15 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCD NacionalTondela
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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