PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio Do Dragão

FC Porto 3–1 CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Porto won 3–1.

Shots
206
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
2.890.18
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Porto beat Estrela 3–1. Recorded in this match (FC Porto – Estrela): shots 20–6, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 2.89–0.18, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Estrela's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Estrela's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Estrela have a visible away split

moderate

Estrela's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.29 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.29 shots/match11.9 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Estrela show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Estrela's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Porto · Estrela11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC PortoEstrelaBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against9.57 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots6 shotsFC Porto 20 shots, CF Estrela Amadora 6 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotFC Porto 6 shots, CF Estrela Amadora 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.89 xG0.18 xGFC Porto 2.89 xG, CF Estrela Amadora 0.18 xG
  • Possession66%34%FC Porto 66%, CF Estrela Amadora 34%
  • Corners4 corners0 cornersFC Porto 4 corners, CF Estrela Amadora 0 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls17 foulsFC Porto 13 fouls, CF Estrela Amadora 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card5 cardsFC Porto 1 card, CF Estrela Amadora 5 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ianis Stoica · Estrela · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPepê · FC Porto · 3′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKikas · Estrela · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorge Meireles · Estrela · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Pinho · Estrela · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Moura · FC Porto · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPablo Rosario · FC Porto · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Gül · FC Porto · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 1′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAbraham Marcus · Estrela · 60′ · 0.06 xG · goalAlan Varela · FC Porto · 63′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Mora · FC Porto · 71′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Gomes · FC Porto · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 38′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGabri Veiga · FC Porto · 87′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBorja Sainz · FC Porto · 40′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 63′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Mora · FC Porto · 4′ · 0.14 xG · on targetFrancisco Moura · FC Porto · 63′ · 0.14 xG · goalBorja Sainz · FC Porto · 45′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Gomes · FC Porto · 68′ · 0.15 xG · on targetJan Bednarek · FC Porto · 63′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLuan Patrick · FC Porto · 73′ · 0.16 xG · goalSamu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 62′ · 0.25 xG · on targetSamu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 17′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Porto: 21 shots, 7 on target, 2.93 xG. Estrela: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Samu Aghehowa · FC Porto · 17′Francisco Moura · FC Porto · 63′Luan Patrick · FC Porto · 73′Abraham Marcus · Estrela · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Porto 2.93 xG · Estrela 0.16 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Porto
0Draws
1CF Estrela Amadora
CF Estrela Amadora — FC Porto · Primeira Liga2–0
FC Porto — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga2–0
FC Porto — CF Estrela Amadora · Primeira Liga2–0
CF Estrela Amadora — FC Porto · Primeira Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Porto favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · CF Estrela Amadora in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Porto14 matchesCF Estrela Amadora15 matches
2.14 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/151.33 goals/match
0.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/151.47 goals/match
1.84 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/141.38 xG/match
14.8 shots/match ▲Shots14/1511.9 shots/match
5.79 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/153.93 shots/match
55.3% ●Possession14/1549.9%
5.29 corners/match ●Corners14/153.53 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards14/142.71 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1513.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 16 Dec 2025, 00:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC PortoCF Estrela Amadora
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Porto — CF Estrela Amadora
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required