PitchMath
Primeira Liga · 2025Estádio da Madeira

CD Nacional 1–2 Benfica · Primeira Liga

1–2Historical match

Benfica

WDWWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Benfica won 1–2.

Shots
631
Shots on target
28
Expected goals
0.52.68
Possession
30%70%

Full time

What the match recorded

Benfica beat Nacional 2–1. Recorded in this match (Nacional – Benfica): shots 6–31, shots on target 2–8, expected goals 0.5–2.68, possession 30%–70%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Benfica show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Benfica's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsNacional · Benfica17.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNacionalBenficaBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match17.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against15.5 shots/match8.92 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nacional's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nacional's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Benfica have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.8%PossessionNacional · Benfica● 61.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNacionalBenficaBaseline
Possession41.8%61.5%48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots31 shotsCD Nacional 6 shots, Benfica 31 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots8 shotsCD Nacional 2 shots, Benfica 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.5 xG2.68 xGCD Nacional 0.5 xG, Benfica 2.68 xG
  • Possession30%70%CD Nacional 30%, Benfica 70%
  • Corners2 corners11 cornersCD Nacional 2 corners, Benfica 11 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsCD Nacional 10 fouls, Benfica 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsCD Nacional 3 cards, Benfica 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Georgiy Sudakov · Benfica · 14′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Barreiro · Benfica · 10′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRodrigo Rego · Benfica · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAmar Dedić · Benfica · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Rego · Benfica · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Aursnes · Benfica · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMotez Nourani · Nacional · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Rego · Benfica · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Aursnes · Benfica · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Sudakov · Benfica · 33′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPaulinho Bóia · Nacional · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Aursnes · Benfica · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Aursnes · Benfica · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Barrenechea · Benfica · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Sudakov · Benfica · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWiti · Nacional · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLéo Santos · Nacional · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Otamendi · Benfica · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Barrenechea · Benfica · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVangelis Pavlidis · Benfica · 29′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAntónio Silva · Benfica · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAntónio Silva · Benfica · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Prestianni · Benfica · 89′ · 0.06 xG · goalAmar Dedić · Benfica · 66′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 53′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAmar Dedić · Benfica · 75′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVangelis Pavlidis · Benfica · 63′ · 0.09 xG · on targetFredrik Aursnes · Benfica · 26′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedVangelis Pavlidis · Benfica · 6′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Barreiro · Benfica · 6′ · 0.13 xG · on targetVangelis Pavlidis · Benfica · 26′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Rego · Benfica · 43′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedFranjo Ivanović · Benfica · 66′ · 0.14 xG · on targetJesús Ramírez · Nacional · 60′ · 0.28 xG · goalVangelis Pavlidis · Benfica · 90′ · 0.31 xG · goalAntónio Silva · Benfica · 76′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedFranjo Ivanović · Benfica · 81′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nacional: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.49 xG. Benfica: 31 shots, 8 on target, 2.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Jesús Ramírez · Nacional · 60′Gianluca Prestianni · Benfica · 89′Vangelis Pavlidis · Benfica · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nacional 0.49 xG · Benfica 2.67 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0CD Nacional
0Draws
2Benfica
Benfica — CD Nacional · Primeira Liga3–0
CD Nacional — Benfica · Primeira Liga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CD Nacional favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Benfica in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CD Nacional12 matchesBenfica13 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored12/13▲ 2.15 goals/match
1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed12/13▲ 0.54 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 2.06 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots12/13▲ 17.1 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target12/13▲ 6.15 shots/match
41.8%Possession12/13● 61.5%
4.58 corners/matchCorners12/13● 5.46 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards12/122.75 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1312.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primeira Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCD NacionalBenfica
CompetitionPrimeira LigaPrimeira Liga 2025/26
Head-to-headCD Nacional — Benfica
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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