PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Wed, 22 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Manuel Martínez ValeroFull-time recap

Elche

LLWLW
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricElcheAtletico Madrid
Shots14 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.67 xG/match▲1.01 xG/match
Possession72%28%
Corners13 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Elche's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Atletico Madrid's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Elche have a visible home split

moderate

Elche's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match11 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atletico Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atletico Madrid's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atletico Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11 shots/match▲ShotsElche · Atletico Madrid13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricElcheAtletico MadridBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.1 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match11 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Elche
1Draws
0Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid — Elche · La Liga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Elche favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Atletico Madrid in 8 · 4 too close

1.31 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/32▲1.66 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/32▲1.09 goals/match
1.16 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/51.02 xG/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/52.06 xG/match
11 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/32▲13.1 shots/match
14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/32▲11 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲5.22 shots/match
4.94 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/32▲3.53 shots/match
58.2%Possessionseason · 32/3254%
3.97 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/326.38 corners/match
4.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/32▲4.28 corners/match
2.21 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/312.16 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3211.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/32▲38%
84%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3288%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Elche87.5
Atletico Madrid82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Elche43.3
Atletico Madrid80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Elche24.2
Atletico Madrid84.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Elche2.5
Atletico Madrid42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Elche47.5
Atletico Madrid27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Elche30
Atletico Madrid87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Elche38.8
Atletico Madrid67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
1.16 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.02 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots5/510.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
54%Possession5/548.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
—Cards2/44.25 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
1.16 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.02 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match
58.8%Possession10/1054.1%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.71 cards/matchCards7/92.89 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲1.66 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲1.09 goals/match
1.16 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.02 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots32/32▲13.1 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲5.22 shots/match
58.2%Possession32/3254%
3.97 corners/matchCorners32/326.38 corners/match
2.21 cards/matchCards29/312.16 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls32/3211.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 16 matches
1.65 goals/match▲Goals scored17/161.13 goals/match
1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/161.31 goals/match
1.6 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.9 xG/match
13.4 shots/match▲Shots17/1610.6 shots/match
4.82 shots/match▲Shots on target17/163.75 shots/match
60.1%Possession17/1652.6%
4.71 corners/matchCorners17/164.88 corners/match
1.93 cards/matchCards15/152.2 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls17/1612.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

11.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 22 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsElcheAtletico Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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