La Liga · 2025Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeEstadio de la CeramicaFull-time recap

Villarreal

WWWLW

3–1Full-time recap

Alaves

LWLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Villarreal	Alaves
Shots	11 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Possession	44%	56%
Corners	1 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	14 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.6 shots/match	13.1 shots/match	11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Alaves in 1 · 4 too close

2.06 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/190.84 goals/match

0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/191.26 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

13.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1911.4 shots/match

12.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/19▲11.8 shots/match

4.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/193.58 shots/match

3.39 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/193.79 shots/match

43.8%Possessionseason · 18/1950.3%

4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/195.05 corners/match

4.39 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/194.74 corners/match

2.44 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/192.58 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1915.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1916%

89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1963%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal17.5

Alaves62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal75.8

Alaves29.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal72.5

Alaves65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal82.5

Alaves27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal50

Alaves81.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal37.5

Alaves57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal55

Alaves55.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.2 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match

37.6%Possession5/551.2%

3 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match

0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.5 shots/matchShots10/1011.4 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match

42.1%Possession10/1048.7%

3.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.9 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 19 matches

2.06 goals/match▲Goals scored18/190.84 goals/match

0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/191.26 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.1 shots/match▲Shots18/1911.4 shots/match

4.94 shots/match▲Shots on target18/193.58 shots/match

43.8%Possession18/1950.3%

4.17 corners/matchCorners18/195.05 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCards18/192.58 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls18/1915.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches

2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/90.44 goals/match

0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/91.56 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.6 shots/match▲Shots10/910.6 shots/match

6.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/93.44 shots/match

50%Possession10/949.1%

5.3 corners/matchCorners10/94.33 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards10/92.89 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/916 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.91 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples18 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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