PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sun, 9 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeEstadio Abanca BalaídosFull-time recap
2–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCelta VigoBarcelona
Shots5 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession39%61%
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsCelta Vigo · Barcelona20.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCelta VigoBarcelonaBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match20.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match8.67 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

51%▲PossessionCelta Vigo · Barcelona67.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCelta VigoBarcelonaBaseline
Possession51%67.8%50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Barcelona in 9 · 5 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲2.67 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲20.3 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲8.67 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲8.08 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲3.75 shots/match
51%Possessionseason · 12/1267.8%
4.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/126.83 corners/match
4.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲4.5 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCardsseason · 12/122.08 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/129.42 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲25%
92%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo52.5
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo50
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo30
Barcelona67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo37.5
Barcelona82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo42.5
Barcelona20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo52.5
Barcelona92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo45.6
Barcelona73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲19.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.4 shots/match
48.4%Possession5/561.4%
3 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/53.8 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.6 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots10/10▲19.3 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.9 shots/match
49.3%Possession10/1066.1%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/106.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/108.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2.67 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots12/12▲20.3 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲8.08 shots/match
51%Possession12/1267.8%
4.83 corners/matchCorners12/126.83 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCards12/122.08 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls12/129.42 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.29 goals/match
1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots7/7▲19.6 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲7.71 shots/match
54.3%Possession7/768.4%
5.57 corners/matchCorners7/76.43 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/72.86 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/79.57 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 10 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCelta VigoBarcelona
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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