PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeEstadio MendizorrotzaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAlavesAtletico Madrid
Shots5 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession40%60%●
Corners1 corners/match6 corners/match●
Fouls10 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Alaves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Alaves show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Alaves's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAlaves · Atletico Madrid14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAlavesAtletico MadridBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match14.3 shots/match10.5 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match6.67 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14 fouls/matchFoulsAlaves · Atletico Madrid14 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAlavesAtletico MadridBaseline
Fouls14 fouls/match14 fouls/match12.7 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Atletico Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

51%PossessionAlaves · Atletico Madrid●59.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAlavesAtletico MadridBaseline
Possession51%59.3%51.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Alaves favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Atletico Madrid in 0 · 13 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/31 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/314.3 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/36.67 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/35.33 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/33 shots/match
51%Possessionseason · 3/3●59.3%
4.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/3●6.33 corners/match
4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/31.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/32 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/314 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/30%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/3100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Alaves45.8
Atletico Madrid95.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Alaves52.8
Atletico Madrid75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Alaves52.8
Atletico Madrid73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Alaves37.5
Atletico Madrid62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Alaves60.4
Atletico Madrid75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Alaves54.2
Atletico Madrid70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Alaves60.4
Atletico Madrid81.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Alaves3 matchesAtletico Madrid3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/31 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots3/3▲14.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5.33 shots/match
51%Possession3/3●59.3%
4.33 corners/matchCorners3/3●6.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Alaves2 matchesAtletico Madrid2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAlavesAtletico Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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