PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTCFull time

Hellas Verona

0–2Full-time recap

AS Roma

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

AS Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.55 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Possession40.1%56.3%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

AS Roma have a visible away split

moderate

AS Roma's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hellas Verona2.5
AS Roma77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hellas Verona24.2
AS Roma78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hellas Verona29.2
AS Roma85.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hellas Verona87.5
AS Roma27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona95
AS Roma60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona42.5
AS Roma77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hellas Verona52.5
AS Roma79.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricHellas VeronaAS Roma
Goals scored0.4 goals/match5 obs.2.6 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1 goals/match5 obs.0.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals0.71 xG/match5 obs.2.28 xG/match5 obs.
Shots9.2 shots/match5 obs.14.2 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3.4 shots/match5 obs.6 shots/match5 obs.
Possession33%5 obs.56.6%5 obs.
Corners3.6 corners/match5 obs.6.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.1.33 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls15 fouls/match5 obs.12.2 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricHellas VeronaAS Roma
Goals scored0.3 goals/match10 obs.2.1 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.2 goals/match10 obs.1 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals0.81 xG/match10 obs.1.65 xG/match10 obs.
Shots11.7 shots/match10 obs.12.3 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target3.4 shots/match10 obs.4.8 shots/match10 obs.
Possession39.7%10 obs.54%10 obs.
Corners4.6 corners/match10 obs.5.4 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—2 obs.2 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls15.6 fouls/match10 obs.11.8 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricHellas VeronaAS Roma
Goals scored0.66 goals/match38 obs.1.55 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.61 goals/match38 obs.0.82 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals0.81 xG/match10 obs.1.65 xG/match10 obs.
Shots11.1 shots/match38 obs.13.2 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target3.68 shots/match38 obs.4.68 shots/match38 obs.
Possession40.1%38 obs.56.3%38 obs.
Corners3.92 corners/match38 obs.5.16 corners/match38 obs.
Cards2.47 cards/match30 obs.1.91 cards/match32 obs.
Fouls15.7 fouls/match38 obs.13.8 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricHellas VeronaAS Roma
Goals scored0.63 goals/match19 obs.1.37 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.47 goals/match19 obs.1.11 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals0.68 xG/match6 obs.1.98 xG/match5 obs.
Shots10.9 shots/match19 obs.11.1 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target3.89 shots/match19 obs.4.16 shots/match19 obs.
Possession43%19 obs.55%19 obs.
Corners4.79 corners/match19 obs.4.58 corners/match19 obs.
Cards2.33 cards/match15 obs.2.12 cards/match17 obs.
Fouls14.9 fouls/match19 obs.14.8 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason0.66 goals/match3th1.55 goals/match83th1.17 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.61 goals/match88th0.82 goals/match8th1.24 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason0.81 xG/match8th1.65 xG/match93th1.18 xG/match10 / 10
Expected goals allowedseason1.39 xG/match68th0.89 xG/match18th1.29 xG/match10 / 10
Shotsseason11.1 shots/match38th13.2 shots/match75th11.6 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason13.5 shots/match73th9.74 shots/match13th12.8 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason3.68 shots/match33th4.68 shots/match78th3.8 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason4.21 shots/match53th3.63 shots/match23th4.2 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason40.1%3th56.3%78th49.5%38 / 38
Cornersseason3.92 corners/match43th5.16 corners/match78th4.28 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason5.08 corners/match83th3.47 corners/match18th4.61 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason2.47 cards/match93th1.91 cards/match33th2.05 cards/match30 / 32
Foulsseason15.7 fouls/match98th13.8 fouls/match88th12.9 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason16%8th47%90th32%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason47%8th82%90th71%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7.24 days—7.36 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsHellas VeronaAS Roma
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v3