PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTCFull time

Lazio

2–1Full-time recap

Pisa

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Pisa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lazio have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Pisa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Pisa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.68 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lazio have recorded the higher season possession share.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Possession50.4%40.2%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lazio52.5
Pisa2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lazio43.3
Pisa9.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lazio49.2
Pisa7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lazio7.5
Pisa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lazio42.5
Pisa60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lazio22.5
Pisa7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lazio31.2
Pisa20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricLazioPisa
Goals scored1.4 goals/match5 obs.0.4 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed2 goals/match5 obs.2.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.12 xG/match5 obs.1.17 xG/match5 obs.
Shots10.2 shots/match5 obs.8.4 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target4.8 shots/match5 obs.2.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession49.4%5 obs.40.8%5 obs.
Corners4 corners/match5 obs.2.6 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls13.2 fouls/match5 obs.12.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricLazioPisa
Goals scored1.3 goals/match10 obs.0.6 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.2 goals/match10 obs.2.3 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.17 xG/match10 obs.1.09 xG/match10 obs.
Shots10.1 shots/match10 obs.8.7 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.7 shots/match10 obs.3 shots/match10 obs.
Possession49.5%10 obs.39.4%10 obs.
Corners3.5 corners/match10 obs.2.4 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls11.2 fouls/match10 obs.12.9 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricLazioPisa
Goals scored1.08 goals/match38 obs.0.68 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.05 goals/match38 obs.1.87 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals1.3 xG/match11 obs.1.09 xG/match10 obs.
Shots11 shots/match38 obs.9.61 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target4.08 shots/match38 obs.2.79 shots/match38 obs.
Possession50.4%38 obs.40.2%38 obs.
Corners3.74 corners/match38 obs.3.55 corners/match38 obs.
Cards2.38 cards/match29 obs.2.23 cards/match30 obs.
Fouls10.6 fouls/match38 obs.13.1 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricLazioPisa
Goals scored1.42 goals/match19 obs.0.89 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.32 goals/match19 obs.2.37 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals1.23 xG/match6 obs.0.82 xG/match5 obs.
Shots12.2 shots/match19 obs.8.95 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target4.68 shots/match19 obs.2.47 shots/match19 obs.
Possession49.6%19 obs.38.3%19 obs.
Corners4.58 corners/match19 obs.3.32 corners/match19 obs.
Cards2.64 cards/match14 obs.2.4 cards/match15 obs.
Fouls10.9 fouls/match19 obs.12.9 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.08 goals/match35th0.68 goals/match8th1.18 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.05 goals/match38th1.87 goals/match98th1.26 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason1.3 xG/match68th1.09 xG/match38th1.11 xG/match11 / 10
Expected goals allowedseason0.99 xG/match28th1.34 xG/match68th1.18 xG/match11 / 10
Shotsseason11 shots/match33th9.61 shots/match8th11.7 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason13.2 shots/match63th14.4 shots/match93th12.9 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason4.08 shots/match63th2.79 shots/match13th3.85 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason4.18 shots/match53th4.71 shots/match88th4.16 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason50.4%53th40.2%3th49.3%38 / 38
Cornersseason3.74 corners/match23th3.55 corners/match8th4.31 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason4.13 corners/match28th4.82 corners/match58th4.6 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason2.38 cards/match78th2.23 cards/match68th2.05 cards/match29 / 30
Foulsseason10.6 fouls/match8th13.1 fouls/match53th12.9 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason39%73th13%3th32%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason55%23th45%3th71%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures6.36 days—6.36 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsLazioPisa
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 May 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v3