Serie A · 2025Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeStadio Via del MareFull-time recap

Lecce

WLLLL

1–1Full-time recap

Fiorentina

DWDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lecce	Fiorentina
Shots	14 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.46 xG/match▲	1.25 xG/match
Possession	55%	45%
Corners	5 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	0.67 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina have a visible away split

moderate

Fiorentina's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.4 shots/match	13 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.2%▲PossessionLecce · Fiorentina51.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Lecce	Fiorentina	Baseline
Possession	42.2%	51.8%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lecce

0Draws

0Fiorentina

2 Nov 2025Fiorentina — Lecce · Serie A0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 7 · 4 too close

0.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲1.15 goals/match

1.39 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/331.36 goals/match

0.79 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 5/5▲1.24 xG/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 5/5▲1.37 xG/match

9.88 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/33▲13 shots/match

12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/3313.1 shots/match

2.36 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/33▲3.52 shots/match

4.18 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 33/334.55 shots/match

42.2%Possessionseason · 33/3351.8%

4.48 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/334.48 corners/match

5.45 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 33/33▲4.64 corners/match

1.79 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/292.34 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3312.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/3321%

48%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/33▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce12.5

Fiorentina57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce5.8

Fiorentina45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce43.3

Fiorentina31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce32.5

Fiorentina62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce35

Fiorentina60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce65

Fiorentina65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce30.6

Fiorentina48.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

0.79 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.24 xG/match

10.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match

2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match

39%Possession5/544.4%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.3 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match

0.79 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.24 xG/match

9.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.2 shots/match

2.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.2 shots/match

39.4%Possession10/1048.7%

3.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match

0.8 cards/matchCards5/62.5 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

33 / 33 matches

0.67 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲1.15 goals/match

1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed33/331.36 goals/match

0.79 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.24 xG/match

9.88 shots/matchShots33/33▲13 shots/match

2.36 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲3.52 shots/match

42.2%Possession33/3351.8%

4.48 corners/matchCorners33/334.48 corners/match

1.79 cards/matchCards28/292.34 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls33/3312.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

0.71 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.06 goals/match

1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.47 goals/match

—Expected goals2/31.13 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShots17/1710.4 shots/match

2.76 shots/matchShots on target17/172.82 shots/match

45.5%Possession17/1750.8%

4.59 corners/matchCorners17/173.41 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards15/152.4 cards/match

12.4 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

Fiorentina have a visible away split

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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