Serie A · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

AS Roma

DWDLL

1–0Full-time recap

Lecce

WLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	AS Roma	Lecce
Shots	14 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.84 xG/match	1.08 xG/match▲
Possession	67%	33%
Corners	10 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	17 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AS Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.33 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsAS Roma · Lecce9.83 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	AS Roma	Lecce	Baseline
Shots	13.2 shots/match	9.83 shots/match	11.8 shots/match
Shots against	9.9 shots/match	13 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

AS Roma have a visible home split

moderate

AS Roma's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.6 shots/match	13.2 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1AS Roma

0Draws

0Lecce

6 Jan 2026Lecce — AS Roma · Serie A0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AS Roma favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 1 · 4 too close

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/300.7 goals/match

0.77 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/301.33 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/309.83 shots/match

9.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3013 shots/match

4.43 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/302.43 shots/match

3.7 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/304.2 shots/match

56.7%Possessionseason · 30/3042%

5.1 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/304.5 corners/match

3.07 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/305.5 corners/match

1.97 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/28▲1.79 cards/match

14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3012.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3027%

77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3050%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AS Roma77.5

Lecce12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AS Roma65.8

Lecce5.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AS Roma83.3

Lecce48.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AS Roma27.5

Lecce37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AS Roma67.5

Lecce32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AS Roma77.5

Lecce60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AS Roma73.8

Lecce27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/57.4 shots/match

2.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52 shots/match

54.2%Possession5/533.4%

6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/31 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

12.1 shots/match▲Shots10/109.8 shots/match

3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.3 shots/match

54.8%Possession10/1039%

5.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match

1.89 cards/matchCards9/81.13 cards/match

14.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored30/300.7 goals/match

0.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/301.33 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shots30/309.83 shots/match

4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target30/302.43 shots/match

56.7%Possession30/3042%

5.1 corners/matchCorners30/304.5 corners/match

1.97 cards/matchCards29/281.79 cards/match

14.6 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1.53 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.67 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.4 goals/match

—Expected goals1/2—

15.6 shots/match▲Shots15/159 shots/match

4.87 shots/match▲Shots on target15/152 shots/match

58.2%Possession15/1538.8%

5.93 corners/matchCorners15/154.27 corners/match

1.57 cards/matchCards14/131.46 cards/match

13.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4