PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Olimpico

Roma 1–0 Lecce · Serie A

Roma

DWDLL
1–0Historical match

Lecce

WLLWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Roma won 1–0.

Shots
148
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.841.08
Possession
67%33%

Full time

What the match recorded

AS Roma beat Lecce 1–0. Recorded in this match (AS Roma – Lecce): shots 14–8, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.84–1.08, possession 67%–33%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AS Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAS Roma · Lecce9.83 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAS RomaLecceBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match9.83 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against9.9 shots/match13 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

AS Roma have a visible home split

moderate

AS Roma's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match13.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots8 shotsRoma 14 shots, Lecce 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsRoma 2 shots, Lecce 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.84 xG1.08 xGRoma 0.84 xG, Lecce 1.08 xG
  • Possession67%33%Roma 67%, Lecce 33%
  • Corners10 corners2 cornersRoma 10 corners, Lecce 2 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls17 foulsRoma 14 fouls, Lecce 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsRoma 2 cards, Lecce 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Donyell Malen · AS Roma · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOumar Ngom · Lecce · 48′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBryan Cristante · AS Roma · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · AS Roma · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma · 20′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNikola Štulić · Lecce · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKonstantinos Tsimikas · AS Roma · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · AS Roma · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMario Hermoso · AS Roma · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · AS Roma · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRobinio Vaz · AS Roma · 79′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEvan Ndicka · AS Roma · 29′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · AS Roma · 63′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSadik Fofana · Lecce · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Arena · AS Roma · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedWalid Cheddira · Lecce · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Arena · AS Roma · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRobinio Vaz · AS Roma · 57′ · 0.16 xG · goalKonan N'Dri · Lecce · 73′ · 0.23 xG · on targetTiago Gabriel · Lecce · 48′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Pierotti · Lecce · 73′ · 0.50 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AS Roma: 14 shots, 2 on target, 0.83 xG. Lecce: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Robinio Vaz · AS Roma · 57′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AS Roma 0.83 xG · Lecce 1.21 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Roma
1Draws
0Lecce
Lecce — Roma · Serie A0–2
Lecce — Roma · Serie A0–1
Roma — Lecce · Serie A4–1
Lecce — Roma · Serie A0–0
Roma — Lecce · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Roma favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Lecce in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Roma30 matchesLecce30 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/300.7 goals/match
0.77 goals/match ▲Goals allowed30/301.33 goals/match
1.33 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/300.8 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots30/309.83 shots/match
4.43 shots/match ▲Shots on target30/302.43 shots/match
56.7% ●Possession30/3042%
5.1 corners/match ●Corners30/304.5 corners/match
1.97 cards/matchCards29/281.79 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRomaLecce
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headRoma — Lecce
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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