Serie A · 2025Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Artemio FranchiFull-time recap

Fiorentina

WWLDW

1–1Full-time recap

Inter

WWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fiorentina	Inter
Shots	16 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.28 xG/match▲	1.22 xG/match
Possession	40%	60%
Corners	3 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	2.2 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsFiorentina · Inter18 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Fiorentina	Inter	Baseline
Shots	13.7 shots/match	18 shots/match	11.8 shots/match
Shots against	12.8 shots/match	8.37 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Fiorentina have a visible home split

moderate

Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16.3 shots/match	13.7 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Fiorentina

0Draws

1Inter

29 Oct 2025Inter — Fiorentina · Serie A3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Inter in 10 · 4 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲2.2 goals/match

1.47 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲0.8 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲18 shots/match

12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲8.37 shots/match

3.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲6.13 shots/match

4.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲2.8 shots/match

52.7%Possessionseason · 30/3060.4%

4.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/306.7 corners/match

4.47 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲2.63 corners/match

2.36 cards/matchCardsseason · 28/28▲1.64 cards/match

12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3013.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/30▲50%

73%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina62.5

Inter92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina51.7

Inter95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina33.3

Inter92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina67.5

Inter97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina66.2

Inter36.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina72.5

Inter97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina56.2

Inter86.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.4 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match

53.8%Possession5/561%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.4 shots/match

3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.7 shots/match

51.3%Possession10/1062.4%

4.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards8/81.75 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches

1.17 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲2.2 goals/match

1.47 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲0.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.7 shots/matchShots30/30▲18 shots/match

3.67 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲6.13 shots/match

52.7%Possession30/3060.4%

4.67 corners/matchCorners30/306.7 corners/match

2.36 cards/matchCards28/281.64 cards/match

12.9 fouls/matchFouls30/3013.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1.27 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.8 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲0.73 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

16.3 shots/matchShots15/15▲17.2 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲5.27 shots/match

54.2%Possession15/1561.1%

5.67 corners/matchCorners15/156 corners/match

2.29 cards/matchCards14/141.64 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.24 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4