Serie A · 2025Mon, 16 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giovanni ZiniFull-time recap

Cremonese

LDLLL

1–4Full-time recap

Fiorentina

DWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Cremonese	Fiorentina
Shots	13 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.44 xG/match	1.79 xG/match▲
Possession	48%	52%
Corners	4 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	17 fouls/match	16 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Cremonese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	0.79 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.24 shots/match▲ShotsCremonese · Fiorentina13.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Cremonese	Fiorentina	Baseline
Shots	9.24 shots/match	13.6 shots/match	11.6 shots/match
Shots against	17 shots/match	12.9 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Fiorentina have a visible away split

moderate

Fiorentina's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.1 shots/match	13.6 shots/match	11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Cremonese

0Draws

1Fiorentina

4 Jan 2026Fiorentina — Cremonese · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Cremonese favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 7 · 5 too close

0.79 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲1.17 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/291.48 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

9.24 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲13.6 shots/match

17 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/29▲12.9 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲3.59 shots/match

5.59 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲4.45 shots/match

45.6%Possessionseason · 29/2953.1%

3.34 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/294.72 corners/match

6.66 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/29▲4.45 corners/match

2.11 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/282.36 cards/match

13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2912.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2917%

52%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲72%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cremonese37.5

Fiorentina62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cremonese13.3

Fiorentina50.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cremonese7.5

Fiorentina34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cremonese2.5

Fiorentina67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cremonese66.2

Fiorentina66.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cremonese2.5

Fiorentina72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cremonese22.5

Fiorentina55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.8 shots/matchShots5/511.4 shots/match

3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match

46.2%Possession5/552.4%

4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/42.75 cards/match

16 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

10.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.9 shots/match

3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.9 shots/match

45.9%Possession10/1052.5%

3.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match

14.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches

0.79 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲1.17 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed29/291.48 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

9.24 shots/matchShots29/29▲13.6 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲3.59 shots/match

45.6%Possession29/2953.1%

3.34 corners/matchCorners29/294.72 corners/match

2.11 cards/matchCards28/282.36 cards/match

13.7 fouls/matchFouls29/2912.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 15 matches

0.86 goals/matchGoals scored14/15▲1.07 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/151.6 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

10.3 shots/matchShots14/15▲11.1 shots/match

3.64 shots/match▲Shots on target14/152.93 shots/match

45.6%Possession14/1551.1%

3.43 corners/matchCorners14/153.67 corners/match

2.15 cards/matchCards13/142.43 cards/match

13.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1513.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.34 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.24 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 16 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4