PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Giovanni Zini

Cremonese 1–4 Fiorentina · Serie A

1–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fiorentina won 1–4.

Shots
1313
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
1.441.79
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fiorentina beat Cremonese 4–1. Recorded in this match (Cremonese – Fiorentina): shots 13–13, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 1.44–1.79, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cremonese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.79 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.24 shots/match ▲ShotsCremonese · Fiorentina13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCremoneseFiorentinaBaseline
Shots9.24 shots/match13.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against17 shots/match12.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Fiorentina have a visible away split

moderate

Fiorentina's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots13 shotsCremonese 13 shots, Fiorentina 13 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsCremonese 3 shots, Fiorentina 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.44 xG1.79 xGCremonese 1.44 xG, Fiorentina 1.79 xG
  • Possession48%52%Cremonese 48%, Fiorentina 52%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersCremonese 4 corners, Fiorentina 6 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls16 foulsCremonese 17 fouls, Fiorentina 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsCremonese 1 card, Fiorentina 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tommaso Barbieri · Cremonese · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlessio Zerbin · Cremonese · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarco Brescianini · Fiorentina · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavid Okereke · Cremonese · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 61′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDavid Okereke · Cremonese · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 25′ · 0.04 xG · goalAlberto Grassi · Cremonese · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMilan Đurić · Cremonese · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJari Vandeputte · Cremonese · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Cremonese · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuca Ranieri · Fiorentina · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Cremonese · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Fagioli · Fiorentina · 86′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 7′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 70′ · 0.11 xG · goalDavid Okereke · Cremonese · 89′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFederico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 3′ · 0.28 xG · on targetDavid Okereke · Cremonese · 57′ · 0.30 xG · goalRoberto Piccoli · Fiorentina · 32′ · 0.41 xG · goalAlberto Grassi · Cremonese · 68′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedDodô · Fiorentina · 49′ · 0.86 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cremonese: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.47 xG. Fiorentina: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′David Okereke · Cremonese · 57′Fabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 25′Roberto Piccoli · Fiorentina · 32′Dodô · Fiorentina · 49′Albert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cremonese 1.47 xG · Fiorentina 1.83 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Cremonese
0Draws
3Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Cremonese · Serie A1–0
Cremonese — Fiorentina · Serie A0–2
Fiorentina — Cremonese · Serie A3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cremonese favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cremonese29 matchesFiorentina29 matches
0.79 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed29/291.48 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲ 1.53 xG/match
9.24 shots/matchShots29/29▲ 13.6 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲ 3.59 shots/match
45.6%Possession29/29● 53.1%
3.34 corners/matchCorners29/29● 4.72 corners/match
2.11 cards/matchCards28/282.36 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls29/2912.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 16 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCremoneseFiorentina
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headCremonese — Fiorentina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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