PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Mon, 23 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Renato Dall'AraFull-time recap

Bologna

LLLLW
1–0Full-time recap

Udinese

LWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBolognaUdinese
Shots11 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners4 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.35 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bologna have a visible home split

moderate

Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bologna have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.7%▲PossessionBologna · Udinese46.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBolognaUdineseBaseline
Possession54.7%46.2%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bologna
0Draws
0Udinese
Udinese — Bologna · Serie A0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Udinese in 1 · 6 too close

1.35 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.08 goals/match
1.23 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2611.5 shots/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2612.4 shots/match
4.04 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.54 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/264.04 shots/match
54.7%Possessionseason · 26/2646.2%
4.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264.54 corners/match
4.12 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/264.73 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1.88 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2614.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2619%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2677%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna72.5
Udinese42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna60.8
Udinese35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna65.8
Udinese45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna37.5
Udinese52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna70
Udinese55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna65
Udinese55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna63.8
Udinese49.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
51.2%Possession5/546.8%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/515.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots10/109.4 shots/match
3.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.8 shots/match
51.4%Possession10/1045.6%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
1.35 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.08 goals/match
1.23 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots26/2611.5 shots/match
4.04 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.54 shots/match
54.7%Possession26/2646.2%
4.65 corners/matchCorners26/264.54 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards26/261.88 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls26/2614.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.15 goals/match
1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.62 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots13/1310.3 shots/match
4.08 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.38 shots/match
55.2%Possession13/1345.2%
5.31 corners/matchCorners13/134.69 corners/match
1.77 cards/matchCards13/132 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.34 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 23 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBolognaUdinese
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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