PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Bologna 1–0 Udinese · Serie A

Bologna

LLLLW
1–0Historical match

Udinese

LWWLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bologna won 1–0.

Shots
118
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.270.56
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bologna beat Udinese 1–0. Recorded in this match (Bologna – Udinese): shots 11–8, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.27–0.56, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.35 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bologna have a visible home split

moderate

Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bologna have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.7% ●PossessionBologna · Udinese46.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBolognaUdineseBaseline
Possession54.7%46.2%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots8 shotsBologna 11 shots, Udinese 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsBologna 6 shots, Udinese 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.27 xG0.56 xGBologna 1.27 xG, Udinese 0.56 xG
  • Possession46%54%Bologna 46%, Udinese 54%
  • Corners4 corners7 cornersBologna 4 corners, Udinese 7 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsBologna 9 fouls, Udinese 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardBologna 1 card, Udinese 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tommaso Pobega · Bologna · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Bologna · 35′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJesper Karlström · Udinese · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJuan Miranda · Bologna · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIdrissa Gueye · Udinese · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNicolò Zaniolo · Udinese · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Castro · Bologna · 38′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJakub Piotrowski · Udinese · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Kabasele · Udinese · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Rowe · Bologna · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJakub Piotrowski · Udinese · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOier Zarraga · Udinese · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIdrissa Gueye · Udinese · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJuan Miranda · Bologna · 51′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJonathan Rowe · Bologna · 54′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSantiago Castro · Bologna · 39′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Udinese · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 54′ · 0.15 xG · on targetNicolò Zaniolo · Udinese · 6′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedFederico Bernardeschi · Bologna · 75′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bologna: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.34 xG. Udinese: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Federico Bernardeschi · Bologna · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bologna 1.34 xG · Udinese 0.65 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bologna
3Draws
1Udinese
Udinese — Bologna · Serie A0–3
Udinese — Bologna · Serie A0–0
Bologna — Udinese · Serie A1–1
Bologna — Udinese · Serie A1–1
Udinese — Bologna · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bologna favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Udinese in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bologna26 matchesUdinese26 matches
1.35 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.08 goals/match
1.23 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.5 goals/match
1.22 xG/match ▲Expected goals26/261.07 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots26/2611.4 shots/match
4.04 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/263.5 shots/match
54.7% ●Possession26/2646.2%
4.65 corners/match ●Corners26/264.54 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards26/261.88 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls26/2614.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 23 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBolognaUdinese
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headBologna — Udinese
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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