PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo AnconetaniFull-time recap

Pisa

DDLLD
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricPisaAC Milan
Shots7 shots/match7 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession34%66%
Corners3 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AC Milan's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AC Milan's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Pisa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Pisa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsPisa · AC Milan13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPisaAC MilanBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match11 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Pisa
1Draws
0AC Milan
AC Milan — Pisa · Serie A2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Pisa favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 10 · 4 too close

0.8 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/24▲1.67 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/24▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/24▲13.3 shots/match
15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/24▲11 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/24▲4.67 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/24▲3.42 shots/match
40.3%Possessionseason · 25/2451.7%
3.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/244.54 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/24▲4.54 corners/match
2.12 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/24▲1.71 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/249.58 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/24▲46%
52%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/24▲96%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Pisa2.5
AC Milan57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Pisa15.8
AC Milan76.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Pisa14.2
AC Milan80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Pisa57.5
AC Milan67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Pisa52.5
AC Milan12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Pisa37.5
AC Milan57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Pisa28.8
AC Milan50.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.2 shots/match
40.8%Possession5/551%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match
39.7%Possession10/1052.9%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls10/109.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 24 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored25/24▲1.67 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed25/24▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots25/24▲13.3 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target25/24▲4.67 shots/match
40.3%Possession25/2451.7%
3.88 corners/matchCorners25/244.54 corners/match
2.12 cards/matchCards25/241.71 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls25/249.58 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
0.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.77 goals/match
1.23 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲0.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots13/1310.2 shots/match
2.77 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲4.08 shots/match
42.8%Possession13/1350.2%
3.92 corners/matchCorners13/133.15 corners/match
2.23 cards/matchCards13/131.62 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls13/138.77 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsPisaAC Milan
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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