PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Pisa 1–2 Milan · Serie A

Pisa

DDLLD
1–2Historical match

Milan

DWWDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 1–2.

Shots
77
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
0.772.35
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan beat Pisa 2–1. Recorded in this match (Pisa – AC Milan): shots 7–7, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 0.77–2.35, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AC Milan's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Pisa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Pisa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsPisa · AC Milan13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPisaAC MilanBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match11 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots7 shotsPisa 7 shots, Milan 7 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsPisa 2 shots, Milan 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.77 xG2.35 xGPisa 0.77 xG, Milan 2.35 xG
  • Possession34%66%Pisa 34%, Milan 66%
  • Corners3 corners1 cornerPisa 3 corners, Milan 1 corner
  • Fouls14 fouls9 foulsPisa 14 fouls, Milan 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsPisa 1 card, Milan 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Stefano Moreo · Pisa · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFilip Stojilković · Pisa · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZachary Athekame · AC Milan · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEbenezer Akinsanmiro · Pisa · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Angori · Pisa · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Angori · Pisa · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRuben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 33′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · AC Milan · 81′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Loyola · Pisa · 71′ · 0.29 xG · goalRuben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 39′ · 0.36 xG · goalFilip Stojilković · Pisa · 30′ · 0.38 xG · on targetLuka Modrić · AC Milan · 85′ · 0.66 xG · goalNiclas Füllkrug · AC Milan · 56′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Pisa: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.80 xG. AC Milan: 7 shots, 2 on target, 2.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Felipe Loyola · Pisa · 71′Ruben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 39′Luka Modrić · AC Milan · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Pisa 0.80 xG · AC Milan 2.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Pisa
1Draws
0Milan
Milan — Pisa · Serie A2–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Pisa favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Pisa25 matchesMilan24 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored25/24▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed25/24▲ 0.75 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals25/24▲ 1.68 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots25/24▲ 13.3 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target25/24▲ 4.67 shots/match
40.3%Possession25/24● 51.7%
3.88 corners/matchCorners25/24● 4.54 corners/match
2.12 cards/matchCards25/241.71 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls25/249.58 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPisaMilan
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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