PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Olimpico di Torino

Torino 2–3 Milan · Serie A

Torino

DDDLL
2–3Historical match

Milan

DWDWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 2–3.

Shots
817
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
1.031.67
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan beat Torino 3–2. Recorded in this match (Torino – AC Milan): shots 8–17, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 1.03–1.67, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Torino's recent record differs from the season

weak

Torino's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

AC Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AC Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsTorino · AC Milan13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTorinoAC MilanBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against14.9 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots17 shotsTorino 8 shots, Milan 17 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsTorino 4 shots, Milan 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.03 xG1.67 xGTorino 1.03 xG, Milan 1.67 xG
  • Possession36%64%Torino 36%, Milan 64%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersTorino 2 corners, Milan 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls7 foulsTorino 16 fouls, Milan 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardTorino 2 cards, Milan 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kristjan Asllani · Torino · 17′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 24′ · 0.02 xG · goalRafael Leão · AC Milan · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Tameze · Torino · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedStrahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vlašić · Torino · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 17′ · 0.03 xG · goalChristopher Nkunku · AC Milan · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Pedersen · Torino · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavide Bartesaghi · AC Milan · 55′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRuben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRuben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDavide Bartesaghi · AC Milan · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKristjan Asllani · Torino · 73′ · 0.05 xG · on targetChristopher Nkunku · AC Milan · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChristopher Nkunku · AC Milan · 69′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCyril Ngonge · Torino · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFikayo Tomori · AC Milan · 69′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRuben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 37′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 67′ · 0.12 xG · goalChristopher Nkunku · AC Milan · 47′ · 0.14 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 77′ · 0.26 xG · goalSamuele Ricci · AC Milan · 55′ · 0.56 xG · on targetNikola Vlašić · Torino · 10′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Torino: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.05 xG. AC Milan: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Nikola Vlašić · Torino · 10′Duván Zapata · Torino · 17′Adrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 24′Christian Pulišić · AC Milan · 67′Christian Pulišić · AC Milan · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Torino 1.05 xG · AC Milan 1.73 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Torino
1Draws
2Milan
Torino — Milan · Serie A2–1
Milan — Torino · Serie A2–2
Torino — Milan · Serie A3–1
Milan — Torino · Serie A4–1
Milan — Torino · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Torino favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 10

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Torino14 matchesMilan14 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 1.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 0.79 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 1.57 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots14/14▲ 13.6 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲ 4.71 shots/match
42.8%Possession14/14● 50.9%
4.07 corners/match ●Corners14/143.79 corners/match
1.79 cards/matchCards14/141.64 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls14/149.64 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 8 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTorinoMilan
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headTorino — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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