PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Mon, 8 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Olimpico di TorinoFull-time recap

Torino

DDDLL
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTorinoAC Milan
Shots8 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession36%64%
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Torino's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Torino's recent record differs from the season

weak

Torino's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

AC Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AC Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsTorino · AC Milan13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTorinoAC MilanBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against14.9 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Torino favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 9 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲1.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲0.79 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲13.6 shots/match
14.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲11.3 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲4.71 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.5 shots/match
42.8%Possessionseason · 14/1450.9%
4.07 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/143.79 corners/match
4.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/144.64 corners/match
1.79 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.64 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/149.64 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲50%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Torino17.5
AC Milan57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Torino36.7
AC Milan75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Torino15.8
AC Milan75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Torino77.5
AC Milan82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Torino41.2
AC Milan12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Torino52.5
AC Milan32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Torino46.2
AC Milan43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
43%Possession5/548%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots10/1012.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
44.8%Possession10/1049.4%
4 corners/matchCorners10/102.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲0.79 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots14/14▲13.6 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.71 shots/match
42.8%Possession14/1450.9%
4.07 corners/matchCorners14/143.79 corners/match
1.79 cards/matchCards14/141.64 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls14/149.64 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.71 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots7/711.3 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.43 shots/match
44.1%Possession7/752.1%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/73 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards7/71.29 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls7/78.14 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.34 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 8 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTorinoAC Milan
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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