PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Ennio TardiniFull-time recap

Parma

LDDLL
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParmaAC Milan
Shots14 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession43%57%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.64 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.64 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

AC Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

AC Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10 shots/match▲ShotsParma · AC Milan13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParmaAC MilanBaseline
Shots10 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match11 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Parma favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 9 · 5 too close

0.64 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲1.55 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲0.82 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲13.6 shots/match
13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲11 shots/match
2.73 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.82 shots/match
4.55 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲3.18 shots/match
41.5%Possessionseason · 11/1151.5%
3 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.27 corners/match
4.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/114.55 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCardsseason · 11/11▲1.55 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/119.91 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲45%
45%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Parma12.5
AC Milan62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Parma14.2
AC Milan75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Parma30
AC Milan71.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Parma37.5
AC Milan82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Parma41.2
AC Milan8.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Parma12.5
AC Milan52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Parma16.2
AC Milan50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.2 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
35.6%Possession5/552.4%
2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match
42.1%Possession10/1050.2%
2.7 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
0.64 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.55 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots11/11▲13.6 shots/match
2.73 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.82 shots/match
41.5%Possession11/1151.5%
3 corners/matchCorners11/114.27 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards11/111.55 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls11/119.91 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored6/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots6/5▲11 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target6/5▲4.4 shots/match
42.2%Possession6/553%
2.83 corners/matchCorners6/53.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/51.2 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls6/58.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParmaAC Milan
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match