PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Ennio Tardini

Parma 2–2 Milan · Serie A

Parma

LDDLL
2–2Historical match

Milan

DWDDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Parma and Milan drew 2–2.

Shots
149
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.881.95
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Parma and AC Milan drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Parma – AC Milan): shots 14–9, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.88–1.95, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.64 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.64 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

AC Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

AC Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsParma · AC Milan13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParmaAC MilanBaseline
Shots10 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match11 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots9 shotsParma 14 shots, Milan 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsParma 4 shots, Milan 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.88 xG1.95 xGParma 1.88 xG, Milan 1.95 xG
  • Possession43%57%Parma 43%, Milan 57%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersParma 4 corners, Milan 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls10 foulsParma 14 fouls, Milan 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardParma 1 card, Milan 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Abdoulaye Ndiaye · Parma · 30′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedMandela Keita · Parma · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Ndiaye · Parma · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 1′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 12′ · 0.03 xG · goalLuka Modrić · AC Milan · 37′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Gabbia · AC Milan · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 45′ · 0.05 xG · goalPatrick Cutrone · Parma · 1′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOliver Sørensen · Parma · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPatrick Cutrone · Parma · 17′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristopher Nkunku · AC Milan · 45′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 82′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedEnrico Del Prato · Parma · 39′ · 0.21 xG · on targetEnrico Del Prato · Parma · 53′ · 0.23 xG · on targetAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 58′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 79′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedEnrico Del Prato · Parma · 57′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blockedEnrico Del Prato · Parma · 62′ · 0.44 xG · goalChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 76′ · 0.48 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 25′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Parma: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.88 xG. AC Milan: 9 shots, 5 on target, 2.10 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Adrián Bernabé · Parma · 45′Enrico Del Prato · Parma · 62′Alexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 12′Rafael Leão · AC Milan · 25′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Parma 1.88 xG · AC Milan 2.10 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Parma
0Draws
1Milan
Milan — Parma · Serie A3–2
Parma — Milan · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Parma favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Parma11 matchesMilan11 matches
0.64 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 1.55 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 0.82 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 1.62 xG/match
10 shots/matchShots11/11▲ 13.6 shots/match
2.73 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲ 4.82 shots/match
41.5%Possession11/11● 51.5%
3 corners/matchCorners11/11● 4.27 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards11/111.55 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls11/119.91 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParmaMilan
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headParma — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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