Serie A · 2025Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

AC Milan

WDWDD

1–0Full-time recap

AS Roma

WWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	AC Milan	AS Roma
Shots	17 shots/match	20 shots/match▲
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Possession	37%	63%
Corners	7 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

weak

AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.5 goals/match	1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.9%▲PossessionAC Milan · AS Roma59.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	AC Milan	AS Roma	Baseline
Possession	50.9%	59.5%	49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · AS Roma in 3 · 7 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/101 goals/match

0.7 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲0.5 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/1014.5 shots/match

10.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/1010.6 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲5.3 shots/match

3.1 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/103.4 shots/match

50.9%Possessionseason · 10/1059.5%

4.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/106.1 corners/match

4.6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲3.6 corners/match

1.6 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 10/101.9 cards/match

9.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1014.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1050%

90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1070%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan62.5

AS Roma92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan75.8

AS Roma65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan81.7

AS Roma84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan82.5

AS Roma57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan7.5

AS Roma52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan60

AS Roma87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan51.9

AS Roma77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match

50.8%Possession5/558.8%

3.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls5/515.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

0.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.5 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.1 shots/matchShots10/1014.5 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match

50.9%Possession10/1059.5%

4.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match

9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

0.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.5 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.1 shots/matchShots10/1014.5 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match

50.9%Possession10/1059.5%

4.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match

9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/51 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed6/5▲0.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.8 shots/match▲Shots6/513.2 shots/match

5.17 shots/matchShots on target6/5▲5.6 shots/match

50.2%Possession6/559.4%

5.17 corners/matchCorners6/56.2 corners/match

1.83 cards/matchCards6/52.4 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFouls6/516.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.09 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples10 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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