PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Artemio FranchiFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Lecce

DWDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFiorentinaLecce
Shots15 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession63%37%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match21 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fiorentina. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fiorentina.

3.76 days▲Rest daysFiorentina · Lecce4.85 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFiorentinaLecceBaseline
Rest days3.76 days4.85 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Fiorentina have a visible home split

moderate

Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 5 · 7 too close

0.7 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲0.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/109.8 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/1012.3 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/102.8 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲4.2 shots/match
50.1%Possessionseason · 10/1043.7%
4.1 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/105.1 corners/match
4.8 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/105.3 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 10/10▲1.9 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1012.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲40%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina52.5
Lecce17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina29.2
Lecce21.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina19.2
Lecce39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina52.5
Lecce27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina68.8
Lecce38.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina42.5
Lecce67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina43.8
Lecce34.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/544.6%
4 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/515 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲0.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shots10/109.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/102.8 shots/match
50.1%Possession10/1043.7%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲0.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shots10/109.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/102.8 shots/match
50.1%Possession10/1043.7%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
50%Possession5/542.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.85 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFiorentinaLecce
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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