PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeStadio Olimpico di TorinoFull-time recap

Torino

DWLLD
1–0Full-time recap

Napoli

WWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTorinoNapoli
Shots12 shots/match22 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession31%69%
Corners3 corners/match11 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Torino's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Napoli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Torino's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Torino's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Napoli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Napoli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsTorino · Napoli16.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTorinoNapoliBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match16.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against15.9 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.3%▲PossessionTorino · Napoli63%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTorinoNapoliBaseline
Possession42.3%63%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Torino favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 9 · 4 too close

0.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.71 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲16.9 shots/match
15.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲10.7 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲6 shots/match
4.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲2.57 shots/match
42.3%Possessionseason · 7/763%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/77.14 corners/match
4.86 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲1 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/729%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Torino12.5
Napoli97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Torino42.5
Napoli92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Torino12.5
Napoli80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Torino82.5
Napoli62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Torino51.2
Napoli25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Torino40
Napoli92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Torino49.4
Napoli82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲17 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/562.4%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.71 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots7/7▲16.9 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲6 shots/match
42.3%Possession7/763%
4 corners/matchCorners7/77.14 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/71 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls7/712.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.71 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots7/7▲16.9 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲6 shots/match
42.3%Possession7/763%
4 corners/matchCorners7/77.14 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards7/71 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls7/712.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 4 matches
0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/4▲1.5 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed3/41 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots3/4▲17 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/4▲6.25 shots/match
38.3%Possession3/460.3%
3.67 corners/matchCorners3/46.25 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards3/40.75 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls3/411.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTorinoNapoli
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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