PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Milan 2–1 Fiorentina · Serie A

Milan

WWWWD
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 2–1.

Shots
145
Shots on target
41
Expected goals
1.981.08
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan beat Fiorentina 2–1. Recorded in this match (AC Milan – Fiorentina): shots 14–5, shots on target 4–1, expected goals 1.98–1.08, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fiorentina show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsAC Milan · Fiorentina11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanFiorentinaBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against8.86 shots/match12.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots5 shotsMilan 14 shots, Fiorentina 5 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots1 shotMilan 4 shots, Fiorentina 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.98 xG1.08 xGMilan 1.98 xG, Fiorentina 1.08 xG
  • Possession56%44%Milan 56%, Fiorentina 44%
  • Corners1 corner3 cornersMilan 1 corner, Fiorentina 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls12 foulsMilan 14 fouls, Fiorentina 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsMilan 3 cards, Fiorentina 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Youssouf Fofana · AC Milan · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHans Nicolussi Caviglia · Fiorentina · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 63′ · 0.02 xG · goalMarin Pongračić · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZachary Athekame · AC Milan · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Giménez · AC Milan · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDodô · Fiorentina · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Gabbia · AC Milan · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFikayo Tomori · AC Milan · 59′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Giménez · AC Milan · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 71′ · 0.07 xG · on targetSantiago Giménez · AC Milan · 76′ · 0.09 xG · on targetDodô · Fiorentina · 89′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFikayo Tomori · AC Milan · 5′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedStrahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 21′ · 0.45 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 86′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AC Milan: 14 shots, 4 on target, 2.02 xG. Fiorentina: 4 shots, 0 on target, 0.16 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Rafael Leão · AC Milan · 63′Rafael Leão · AC Milan · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AC Milan 2.02 xG · Fiorentina 0.16 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Milan
1Draws
2Fiorentina
Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A2–2
Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A2–1
Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A1–2
Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0
Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan7 matchesFiorentina7 matches
1.57 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
0.57 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match
1.52 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.13 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots7/711 shots/match
4.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/72.14 shots/match
51.4% ●Possession7/750.3%
3.86 corners/matchCorners7/73.86 corners/match
1.57 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/714.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanFiorentina
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headMilan — Fiorentina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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