Serie A · 2025Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

AC Milan

WWWWD

2–1Full-time recap

Fiorentina

DLLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	AC Milan	Fiorentina
Shots	14 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Possession	56%	44%
Corners	1 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fiorentina show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14 shots/match▲ShotsAC Milan · Fiorentina11 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	AC Milan	Fiorentina	Baseline
Shots	14 shots/match	11 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	8.86 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 0 · 4 too close

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.71 goals/match

0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71.43 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

14 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/711 shots/match

8.86 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/712.4 shots/match

4.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/72.14 shots/match

2.86 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/74.86 shots/match

51.4%Possessionseason · 7/750.3%

3.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73.86 corners/match

3.86 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/74.29 corners/match

1.57 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/72 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/714.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

57%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/729%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/771%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan62.5

Fiorentina52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan70.8

Fiorentina23.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan90.8

Fiorentina25.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan67.5

Fiorentina17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan7.5

Fiorentina60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan37.5

Fiorentina37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan42.5

Fiorentina36.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12 shots/matchShots5/511.4 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52 shots/match

48.2%Possession5/548.4%

2.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/515.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match

0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14 shots/match▲Shots7/711 shots/match

4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.14 shots/match

51.4%Possession7/750.3%

3.86 corners/matchCorners7/73.86 corners/match

1.57 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/714.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match

0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14 shots/match▲Shots7/711 shots/match

4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.14 shots/match

51.4%Possession7/750.3%

3.86 corners/matchCorners7/73.86 corners/match

1.57 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match

10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/714.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.5 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.5 shots/match▲Shots4/49.75 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42 shots/match

49%Possession4/453.8%

4.5 corners/matchCorners4/43.5 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls4/413.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.2 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match