PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeGewiss StadiumFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Lazio

WLLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaLazio
Shots16 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession58%42%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lazio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lazio have a visible away split

weak

Lazio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.75 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.75 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Lazio10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaLazioBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.6 shots/match14.7 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lazio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Lazio in 1 · 5 too close

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71.43 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/710.3 shots/match
11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/714.7 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/73.29 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/75.43 shots/match
54.3%Possessionseason · 7/748.7%
5.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73.14 corners/match
3.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/74.86 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/71.86 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/711.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲43%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/743%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta67.5
Lazio42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta79.2
Lazio45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta60.8
Lazio31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta87.5
Lazio7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta25
Lazio27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta82.5
Lazio15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta61.2
Lazio22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
52%Possession5/546.8%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.43 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots7/710.3 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
54.3%Possession7/748.7%
5.71 corners/matchCorners7/73.14 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls7/711.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.43 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots7/710.3 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
54.3%Possession7/748.7%
5.71 corners/matchCorners7/73.14 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls7/711.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match
0.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/40.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18 shots/match▲Shots4/47.75 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.75 shots/match
58%Possession4/443.3%
8.25 corners/matchCorners4/42 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaLazio
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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