Serie A · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeStadio Ennio TardiniFull-time recap

Parma

LDLDW

0–1Full-time recap

Lecce

DLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Parma	Lecce
Shots	10 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Possession	63%	37%
Corners	4 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	16 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	0.83 goals/match	1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Parma favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 3 · 5 too close

0.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲0.83 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.67 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/69.33 shots/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/612.8 shots/match

2.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/62.83 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/64.83 shots/match

46.5%Possessionseason · 6/641.8%

3.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/64.83 corners/match

4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/66 corners/match

1.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 6/62 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/611.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/6▲33%

33%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲67%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Parma37.5

Lecce12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Parma26.7

Lecce19.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Parma55.8

Lecce25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Parma47.5

Lecce22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Parma27.5

Lecce36.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Parma32.5

Lecce62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Parma31.9

Lecce26.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.4 shots/match

48.6%Possession5/542%

3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches

0.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲0.83 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.7 shots/match▲Shots6/69.33 shots/match

2.83 shots/matchShots on target6/62.83 shots/match

46.5%Possession6/641.8%

3.83 corners/matchCorners6/64.83 corners/match

1.5 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls6/611.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches

0.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲0.83 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.7 shots/match▲Shots6/69.33 shots/match

2.83 shots/matchShots on target6/62.83 shots/match

46.5%Possession6/641.8%

3.83 corners/matchCorners6/64.83 corners/match

1.5 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls6/611.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/31.33 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10 shots/match▲Shots3/38.67 shots/match

2.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32 shots/match

48.7%Possession3/340.3%

3 corners/matchCorners3/36 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/312 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.88 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match