PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Ennio Tardini

Parma 0–1 Lecce · Serie A

Parma

LDLDW
0–1Historical match

Lecce

DLLLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lecce won 0–1.

Shots
107
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.590.5
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lecce beat Parma 1–0. Recorded in this match (Parma – Lecce): shots 10–7, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.59–0.5, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.83 goals/match1 goal/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots7 shotsParma 10 shots, Lecce 7 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsParma 2 shots, Lecce 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.59 xG0.5 xGParma 0.59 xG, Lecce 0.5 xG
  • Possession63%37%Parma 63%, Lecce 37%
  • Corners4 corners9 cornersParma 4 corners, Lecce 9 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls16 foulsParma 16 fouls, Lecce 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsParma 1 card, Lecce 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Riccardo Sottil · Lecce · 38′ · 0.01 xG · goalPatrick Cutrone · Parma · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMedon Berisha · Lecce · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Cutrone · Parma · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 4′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMedon Berisha · Lecce · 32′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFrancesco Camarda · Lecce · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSascha Britschgi · Parma · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMilan Đurić · Parma · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEnrico Del Prato · Parma · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Benedyczak · Parma · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Cutrone · Parma · 75′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Cutrone · Parma · 52′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEnrico Del Prato · Parma · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetNikola Štulić · Lecce · 42′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Pierotti · Lecce · 44′ · 0.20 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Parma: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.57 xG. Lecce: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Riccardo Sottil · Lecce · 38′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Parma 0.57 xG · Lecce 0.52 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Parma
2Draws
2Lecce
Parma — Lecce · Serie A1–3
Lecce — Parma · Serie A2–2
Parma — Lecce · Serie B0–0
Lecce — Parma · Serie B4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Parma favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Lecce in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Parma6 matchesLecce6 matches
0.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 0.83 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match
1.01 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/60.74 xG/match
11.7 shots/match ▲Shots6/69.33 shots/match
2.83 shots/matchShots on target6/62.83 shots/match
46.5% ●Possession6/641.8%
3.83 corners/matchCorners6/6● 4.83 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls6/611.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParmaLecce
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headParma — Lecce
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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