Serie A · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeStadio Via del MareFull-time recap

Lecce

DLLL

2–2Full-time recap

Bologna

LWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lecce	Bologna
Shots	12 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Possession	33%	67%
Corners	3 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Bologna have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bologna have a visible away split

weak

Bologna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.67 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.67 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bologna have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.8%▲PossessionLecce · Bologna54.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Lecce	Bologna	Baseline
Possession	42.8%	54.4%	49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Bologna in 7 · 7 too close

0.8 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/5▲1 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

9.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/5▲11.6 shots/match

13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/5▲12 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/5▲3 shots/match

5.4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/5▲3.4 shots/match

42.8%Possessionseason · 5/554.4%

4 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/56.4 corners/match

6.4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/5▲3.6 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/52 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/513.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/520%

60%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/560%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce17.5

Bologna72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce22.5

Bologna36.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce17.5

Bologna65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce22.5

Bologna17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce33.8

Bologna53.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce40

Bologna87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce21.9

Bologna50.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.6 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3 shots/match

42.8%Possession5/554.4%

4 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.6 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3 shots/match

42.8%Possession5/554.4%

4 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.6 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3 shots/match

42.8%Possession5/554.4%

4 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1.33 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10 shots/matchShots3/39.67 shots/match

3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32.33 shots/match

43.3%Possession3/359%

3.67 corners/matchCorners3/35.67 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.12 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples5 / 5home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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