Serie A · 2025Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

AC Milan

LWWW

2–1Full-time recap

Napoli

WWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	AC Milan	Napoli
Shots	6 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Possession	37%	63%
Corners	1 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	7 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.2 corners/match▲CornersAC Milan · Napoli6.4 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	AC Milan	Napoli	Baseline
Corners	5.2 corners/match	6.4 corners/match	4.1 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share.

51%▲PossessionAC Milan · Napoli60.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	AC Milan	Napoli	Baseline
Possession	51%	60.6%	49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 6 · 5 too close

1.8 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/5▲2 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 5/51 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

14.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 5/5▲16.8 shots/match

9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/511.4 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/5▲6.4 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/5▲3 shots/match

51%Possessionseason · 5/560.6%

5.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/56.4 corners/match

3.6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/5▲2.6 corners/match

1.2 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/5▲0.8 cards/match

9.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/512.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

60%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/540%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/5100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan52.5

Napoli92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan74.2

Napoli92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan89.2

Napoli73.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan77.5

Napoli72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan10

Napoli25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan72.5

Napoli87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan54.4

Napoli80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.8 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match

51%Possession5/560.6%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match

1.2 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match

9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.8 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match

51%Possession5/560.6%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match

1.2 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match

9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.8 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match

51%Possession5/560.6%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match

1.2 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match

9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed3/31 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.7 shots/matchShots3/315.3 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲6.67 shots/match

46.7%Possession3/357.3%

5.67 corners/matchCorners3/34.67 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/30.33 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/312.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples5 / 5home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Sept 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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