PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar FC · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.520.84
Expected goals
1.30.91
Shots
15.211.6
Possession
48.7%44.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: alianza Valledupar FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Alianza Valledupar FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Alianza Valledupar FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.84 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match0.84 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Millonarios favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Alianza Valledupar FC in 0 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Millonarios33 matchesAlianza Valledupar FC32 matches
1.52 goals/match ▲Goals scored33/320.84 goals/match
1.06 goals/match ▲Goals allowed33/321.66 goals/match
1.3 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/280.91 xG/match
15.2 shots/match ▲Shots33/3211.6 shots/match
5.76 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/323.13 shots/match
48.7% ●Possession33/3244.8%
5.7 corners/match ●Corners33/324.25 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards8/85.25 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls33/3212.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Millonarios
1Draws
0Alianza Valledupar FC
Alianza Valledupar FC — Millonarios · Primera A2–2

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness31 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMillonariosAlianza Valledupar FC
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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