PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Cruzeiro vs Bahia · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Bahia

WWWWL

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.581.62
Expected goals
1.41.71
Shots
14.214.8
Possession
55%54.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.62 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.62 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Bahia in 5 · 6 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro26 matchesBahia26 matches
1.58 goals/matchGoals scored26/261.62 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.31 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals22/23▲ 1.71 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots26/2614.8 shots/match
4.88 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 5.35 shots/match
55% ●Possession26/2654.9%
5.12 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.77 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/34 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls26/2614.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Cruzeiro
1Draws
1Bahia
Bahia — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–2
Bahia — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–2
Cruzeiro — Bahia · Serie A3–0
Cruzeiro — Bahia · Serie A1–1
Bahia — Cruzeiro · Serie A4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness46 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 6 Nov 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroBahia
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headCruzeiro — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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