PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Vitória vs Fluminense · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.081.65
Expected goals
0.881.3
Shots
1214.5
Possession
43.8%58.5%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share. The next-strongest reading is weaker: vitória's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Vitória's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vitória's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vitória have a visible home split

moderate

Vitória's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match12 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.8%PossessionVitória · Fluminense● 58.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVitóriaFluminenseBaseline
Possession43.8%58.5%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vitória favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Fluminense in 9 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vitória26 matchesFluminense26 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.65 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed26/261.35 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals23/22▲ 1.3 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 14.5 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 5.58 shots/match
43.8%Possession26/26● 58.5%
4.35 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.58 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/53.4 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Vitória
2Draws
1Fluminense
Fluminense — Vitória · Serie A2–2
Vitória — Fluminense · Serie A0–1
Fluminense — Vitória · Serie A1–1
Vitória — Fluminense · Serie A2–1
Fluminense — Vitória · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness47 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 6 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVitóriaFluminense
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headVitória — Fluminense
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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