PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City · Championship

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.381.38
Expected goals
1.011.34
Shots
12.114.3
Possession
51.3%44.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: bolton Wanderers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: bolton Wanderers's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Bolton Wanderers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bolton Wanderers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bolton Wanderers have a visible home split

weak

Bolton Wanderers's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match12.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bolton Wanderers favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Bristol City in 7 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bolton Wanderers8 matchesBristol City8 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored8/81.38 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.01 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.34 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 14.3 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target8/84.63 shots/match
51.3% ●Possession8/844.6%
5.38 corners/match ●Corners8/85.25 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls8/811.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness43 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBolton WanderersBristol City
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required