PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse · Ligue 1

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.41.4
Expected goals
1.472.08
Shots
13.214.8
Possession
56.4%52.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. No second reading clears the same sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsOlympique de Marseille · Toulouse14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOlympique de MarseilleToulouseBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against17 shots/match14.8 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Olympique de Marseille favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Toulouse in 6 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Olympique de Marseille5 matchesToulouse5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 2.08 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 14.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
56.4% ●Possession5/552.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/516.8 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Olympique de Marseille
2Draws
0Toulouse
Toulouse — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 10–1
Olympique de Marseille — Toulouse · Coupe de France2–2
Olympique de Marseille — Toulouse · Ligue 12–2
Olympique de Marseille — Toulouse · Ligue 13–2
Toulouse — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness43 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOlympique de MarseilleToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
Head-to-headOlympique de Marseille — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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