PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Olympique de Marseille vs Le Havre · Ligue 1

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.40.8
Expected goals
1.471.37
Shots
13.215.6
Possession
56.4%48.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 5 to Olympique de Marseille, 0 drawn, 0 to Le Havre. From this fixture's own record: le Havre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

Le Havre show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Le Havre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsOlympique de Marseille · Le Havre15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOlympique de MarseilleLe HavreBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match15.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against17 shots/match14.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Olympique de Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.4% ●PossessionOlympique de Marseille · Le Havre48.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricOlympique de MarseilleLe HavreBaseline
Possession56.4%48.4%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Olympique de Marseille favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Le Havre in 6 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Olympique de Marseille5 matchesLe Havre5 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 1.4 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.37 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 15.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/55 shots/match
56.4% ●Possession5/548.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/5● 5.6 corners/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5Olympique de Marseille
0Draws
0Le Havre
Le Havre — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 10–1
Olympique de Marseille — Le Havre · Ligue 16–2
Le Havre — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–3
Olympique de Marseille — Le Havre · Ligue 15–1
Le Havre — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOlympique de MarseilleLe Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
Head-to-headOlympique de Marseille — Le Havre
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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