PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2026

Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Lommel SK · Belgian Pro League

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
0.710.86
Expected goals
0.970.94
Shots
13.110
Possession
49%45.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: oud-Heverlee Leuven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. The next-strongest reading is weaker: lommel SK's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Oud-Heverlee Leuven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match ▲ShotsOud-Heverlee Leuven · Lommel SK10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOud-Heverlee LeuvenLommel SKBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match10 shots/match14.1 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match21 shots/match14.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Lommel SK's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lommel SK's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.86 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Oud-Heverlee Leuven favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Lommel SK in 6 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Oud-Heverlee Leuven7 matchesLommel SK7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 0.86 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 1.14 goals/match
0.97 xG/matchExpected goals7/70.94 xG/match
13.1 shots/match ▲Shots7/710 shots/match
2.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/72.43 shots/match
49% ●Possession7/745.7%
3.29 corners/matchCorners7/7● 3.43 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls7/77.43 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOud-Heverlee LeuvenLommel SK
CompetitionBelgian Pro League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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