PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Avaí 1–2 Guarani · Serie B

Avaí

DLLWW
1–2Historical match

Guarani

LWDWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Guarani won 1–2.

Shots
157
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
0.991.47
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Guarani beat Avaí 2–1. Recorded in this match (Avaí – Guarani): shots 15–7, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 0.99–1.47, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Avaí have a visible home split

moderate

Avaí's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Avaí's recent record differs from the season

weak

Avaí's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.68 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.68 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots7 shotsAvaí 15 shots, Guarani 7 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsAvaí 2 shots, Guarani 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.99 xG1.47 xGAvaí 0.99 xG, Guarani 1.47 xG
  • Possession58%42%Avaí 58%, Guarani 42%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersAvaí 7 corners, Guarani 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsAvaí 11 fouls, Guarani 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Avaí
0Draws
1Guarani
Guarani — Avaí · Serie B4–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Avaí favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Guarani in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Avaí19 matchesGuarani20 matches
0.68 goals/matchGoals scored19/20▲ 1.3 goals/match
1.37 goals/matchGoals allowed19/20▲ 0.8 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals18/19▲ 1.27 xG/match
12.4 shots/match ▲Shots18/1911.8 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target18/19▲ 3.89 shots/match
49.3%Possession18/19● 50.1%
5.06 corners/match ●Corners18/194.84 corners/match
16.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1912.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Jul 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAvaíGuarani
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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