PitchMath
Serie B · 2024

Avaí 3–2 Guarani · Serie B

Avaí

WWWWD
3–2Historical match

Guarani

LLDLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Avaí won 3–2.

Shots
1316
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
2.31.87
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Avaí beat Guarani 3–2. Recorded in this match (Avaí – Guarani): shots 13–16, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 2.3–1.87, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Avaí's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Avaí's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Guarani have a visible away split

moderate

Guarani's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match15.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots16 shotsAvaí 13 shots, Guarani 16 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsAvaí 6 shots, Guarani 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.3 xG1.87 xGAvaí 2.3 xG, Guarani 1.87 xG
  • Possession41%59%Avaí 41%, Guarani 59%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersAvaí 3 corners, Guarani 4 corners
  • Fouls23 fouls18 foulsAvaí 23 fouls, Guarani 18 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Avaí
0Draws
2Guarani
Avaí — Guarani · Serie B1–2
Guarani — Avaí · Serie B4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Avaí favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Guarani in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Avaí10 matchesGuarani10 matches
1.1 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match
0.7 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
1.28 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.16 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 15.3 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 4.4 shots/match
48.5%Possession10/10● 53.5%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/10● 6.6 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Jun 2024, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAvaíGuarani
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2024
Head-to-headAvaí — Guarani
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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