PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Cuiabá 1–1 Botafogo-SP · Serie B

Cuiabá

DDLDW
1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cuiabá and Botafogo-SP drew 1–1.

Shots
1710
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
0.781.23
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cuiabá and Botafogo-SP drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Cuiabá – Botafogo-SP): shots 17–10, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 0.78–1.23, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Botafogo-SP's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo-SP's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.5 goals/match1 goal/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Cuiabá.

3.15 days ▲Rest daysCuiabá · Botafogo-SP4.23 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCuiabáBotafogo-SPBaseline
Rest days3.15 days4.23 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots10 shotsCuiabá 17 shots, Botafogo-SP 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsCuiabá 5 shots, Botafogo-SP 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.78 xG1.23 xGCuiabá 0.78 xG, Botafogo-SP 1.23 xG
  • Possession57%43%Cuiabá 57%, Botafogo-SP 43%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersCuiabá 6 corners, Botafogo-SP 4 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls7 foulsCuiabá 20 fouls, Botafogo-SP 7 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Cuiabá
1Draws
1Botafogo-SP
Botafogo-SP — Cuiabá · Serie B2–2
Cuiabá — Botafogo-SP · Serie B0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cuiabá favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Botafogo-SP in 2 · 7 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cuiabá6 matchesBotafogo-SP6 matches
0.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1.5 goals/match
0.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61 goal/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲ 1.25 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots3/312.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/33.67 shots/match
44% ●Possession3/341.7%
3.67 corners/matchCorners3/3● 6.67 corners/match
21.3 fouls/matchFouls3/311.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Apr 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCuiabáBotafogo-SP
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headCuiabá — Botafogo-SP
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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