PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Ponte Preta 1–4 Londrina · Serie B

1–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Londrina won 1–4.

Shots
1619
Shots on target
59
Expected goals
1.221.99
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Londrina beat Ponte Preta 4–1. Recorded in this match (Ponte Preta – Londrina): shots 16–19, shots on target 5–9, expected goals 1.22–1.99, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Ponte Preta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ponte Preta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.78 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots19 shotsPonte Preta 16 shots, Londrina 19 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots9 shotsPonte Preta 5 shots, Londrina 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.22 xG1.99 xGPonte Preta 1.22 xG, Londrina 1.99 xG
  • Possession54%46%Ponte Preta 54%, Londrina 46%
  • Corners11 corners4 cornersPonte Preta 11 corners, Londrina 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls8 foulsPonte Preta 16 fouls, Londrina 8 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Ponte Preta
0Draws
1Londrina
Ponte Preta — Londrina · Serie B1–0
Londrina — Ponte Preta · Serie B3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ponte Preta favored in 0 of 4 directional metrics · Londrina in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ponte Preta9 matchesLondrina9 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.67 goals/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 19 May 2026, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingShare of matches scored in rankingFewest goals allowed per match ranking
TeamsPonte PretaLondrina
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headPonte Preta — Londrina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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