PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Londrina 1–4 Novorizontino · Serie B

1–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Novorizontino won 1–4.

Shots
2111
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
1.890.98
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Novorizontino beat Londrina 4–1. Recorded in this match (Londrina – Novorizontino): shots 21–11, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 1.89–0.98, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Londrina.

3.88 days ▲Rest daysLondrina · Novorizontino5.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLondrinaNovorizontinoBaseline
Rest days3.88 days5.1 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Londrina's recent record differs from the season

weak

Londrina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.35 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots11 shotsLondrina 21 shots, Novorizontino 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsLondrina 3 shots, Novorizontino 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.89 xG0.98 xGLondrina 1.89 xG, Novorizontino 0.98 xG
  • Possession55%45%Londrina 55%, Novorizontino 45%
  • Corners5 corners10 cornersLondrina 5 corners, Novorizontino 10 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsLondrina 10 fouls, Novorizontino 11 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Londrina
0Draws
2Novorizontino
Novorizontino — Londrina · Serie B1–3
Londrina — Novorizontino · Serie B0–1
Novorizontino — Londrina · Serie B3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Londrina favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Novorizontino in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Londrina20 matchesNovorizontino20 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲ 1.6 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲ 0.95 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals10/8▲ 1.65 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots10/8▲ 15.8 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/8▲ 5.88 shots/match
45.3%Possession10/8● 49.6%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/8● 6.38 corners/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/813 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 27 Jul 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLondrinaNovorizontino
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headLondrina — Novorizontino
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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