PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

América Mineiro 1–3 Athletic Club · Serie B

1–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Athletic Club won 1–3.

Shots
2114
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
1.91.39
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Athletic Club beat América Mineiro 3–1. Recorded in this match (América Mineiro – Athletic Club): shots 21–14, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 1.9–1.39, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.09 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots14 shotsAmérica Mineiro 21 shots, Athletic Club 14 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsAmérica Mineiro 6 shots, Athletic Club 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.9 xG1.39 xGAmérica Mineiro 1.9 xG, Athletic Club 1.39 xG
  • Possession52%48%América Mineiro 52%, Athletic Club 48%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersAmérica Mineiro 6 corners, Athletic Club 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsAmérica Mineiro 11 fouls, Athletic Club 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1América Mineiro
1Draws
1Athletic Club
Athletic Club — América Mineiro · Serie B1–1
Athletic Club — América Mineiro · Serie B0–2
América Mineiro — Athletic Club · Serie B0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: América Mineiro favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

América Mineiro22 matchesAthletic Club22 matches
0.73 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲ 1.09 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 0.86 goals/match
1.26 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/131.06 xG/match
12.5 shots/match ▲Shots11/139.77 shots/match
3.82 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/133.23 shots/match
50.6% ●Possession11/1340.9%
4.27 corners/match ●Corners11/133.62 corners/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls11/1315.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 17 Aug 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAmérica MineiroAthletic Club
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headAmérica Mineiro — Athletic Club
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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