PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Llaneros FC 1–2 Deportes Tolima · Primera A

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Deportes Tolima won 1–2.

Shots
1517
Shots on target
28
Expected goals
0.922.27
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Deportes Tolima beat Llaneros FC 2–1. Recorded in this match (Llaneros FC – Deportes Tolima): shots 15–17, shots on target 2–8, expected goals 0.92–2.27, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Deportes Tolima's recent record differs from the season

weak

Deportes Tolima's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Deportes Tolima have a visible away split

moderate

Deportes Tolima's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Llaneros FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Llaneros FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLlaneros FC · Deportes Tolima13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLlaneros FCDeportes TolimaBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots17 shotsLlaneros FC 15 shots, Deportes Tolima 17 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots8 shotsLlaneros FC 2 shots, Deportes Tolima 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.92 xG2.27 xGLlaneros FC 0.92 xG, Deportes Tolima 2.27 xG
  • Possession47%53%Llaneros FC 47%, Deportes Tolima 53%
  • Corners4 corners8 cornersLlaneros FC 4 corners, Deportes Tolima 8 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls10 foulsLlaneros FC 13 fouls, Deportes Tolima 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardLlaneros FC 2 cards, Deportes Tolima 1 card
  • Passes306 passes356 passesLlaneros FC 306 passes, Deportes Tolima 356 passes
  • Pass accuracy77.5%79.5%Llaneros FC 77.5%, Deportes Tolima 79.5%
  • Shots inside box11 shots13 shotsLlaneros FC 11 shots, Deportes Tolima 13 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksLlaneros FC 4 blocks, Deportes Tolima 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves1 saveLlaneros FC 6 saves, Deportes Tolima 1 save
  • Offsides4 offsides2 offsidesLlaneros FC 4 offsides, Deportes Tolima 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Llaneros FC
1Draws
0Deportes Tolima
Llaneros FC — Deportes Tolima · Primera A0–0
Deportes Tolima — Llaneros FC · Primera A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Llaneros FC favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Deportes Tolima in 12 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Llaneros FC27 matchesDeportes Tolima30 matches
0.96 goals/matchGoals scored27/30▲ 1.43 goals/match
1.07 goals/matchGoals allowed27/30▲ 0.97 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals20/25▲ 1.36 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots27/30▲ 13.5 shots/match
3.44 shots/matchShots on target27/30▲ 4.83 shots/match
46.6%Possession27/30● 55.5%
4.96 corners/matchCorners27/30● 5.03 corners/match
3.71 cards/matchCards7/83.88 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls27/3010.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 8 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLlaneros FCDeportes Tolima
CompetitionPrimera A
Head-to-headLlaneros FC — Deportes Tolima
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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