PitchMath
Serie A · 2022

Ceará 0–1 Fortaleza · Serie A

Ceará

WWLLD
0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 0–1.

Shots
1312
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
0.561.22
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat Ceará 1–0. Recorded in this match (Ceará – Fortaleza): shots 13–12, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 0.56–1.22, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Ceará's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ceará's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortaleza have a visible away split

strong

Fortaleza's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots12 shotsCeará 13 shots, Fortaleza 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsCeará 3 shots, Fortaleza 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.56 xG1.22 xGCeará 0.56 xG, Fortaleza 1.22 xG
  • Possession64%36%Ceará 64%, Fortaleza 36%
  • Corners4 corners8 cornersCeará 4 corners, Fortaleza 8 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls13 foulsCeará 9 fouls, Fortaleza 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Ceará
0Draws
0Fortaleza
Fortaleza — Ceará · Serie A0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ceará favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 3 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ceará22 matchesFortaleza22 matches
1 goal/match ▲Goals scored22/220.91 goals/match
1.05 goals/matchGoals allowed22/221.05 goals/match
1.24 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/221.13 xG/match
14.5 shots/matchShots22/2214.3 shots/match
4.95 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/224.59 shots/match
51.9% ●Possession22/2247.5%
5.32 corners/matchCorners22/22● 5.73 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2214.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Aug 2022, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCearáFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2022
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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