PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Botafogo 2–0 Fortaleza · Serie A

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Botafogo won 2–0.

Shots
218
Shots on target
103
Expected goals
3.280.42
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo beat Fortaleza 2–0. Recorded in this match (Botafogo – Fortaleza): shots 21–8, shots on target 10–3, expected goals 3.28–0.42, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Botafogo have a visible home split

moderate

Botafogo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.3 shots/match15.7 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots8 shotsBotafogo 21 shots, Fortaleza 8 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots3 shotsBotafogo 10 shots, Fortaleza 3 shots
  • Expected goals3.28 xG0.42 xGBotafogo 3.28 xG, Fortaleza 0.42 xG
  • Possession55%45%Botafogo 55%, Fortaleza 45%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersBotafogo 7 corners, Fortaleza 3 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls12 foulsBotafogo 16 fouls, Fortaleza 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Botafogo
0Draws
0Fortaleza
Fortaleza — Botafogo · Serie A1–3
Botafogo — Fortaleza · Serie A3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 1 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo10 matchesFortaleza10 matches
1.8 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
0.7 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/100.8 goals/match
1.72 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.55 xG/match
15.7 shots/matchShots10/1015.5 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 5.8 shots/match
43.9%Possession10/10● 47.9%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/10● 5.6 corners/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Jun 2023, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headBotafogo — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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