PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

São Paulo 2–1 Athletico · Serie A

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

São Paulo won 2–1.

Shots
814
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
0.61.16
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

São Paulo beat Athletico 2–1. Recorded in this match (São Paulo – Athletico): shots 8–14, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 0.6–1.16, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletico's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletico's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.36 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

São Paulo have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.6% ●PossessionSão Paulo · Athletico47.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSão PauloAthleticoBaseline
Possession59.6%47.9%47.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots14 shotsSão Paulo 8 shots, Athletico 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsSão Paulo 5 shots, Athletico 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.6 xG1.16 xGSão Paulo 0.6 xG, Athletico 1.16 xG
  • Possession56%44%São Paulo 56%, Athletico 44%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersSão Paulo 4 corners, Athletico 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls11 foulsSão Paulo 15 fouls, Athletico 11 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1São Paulo
0Draws
1Athletico
Athletico — São Paulo · Serie A1–0
São Paulo — Athletico · Serie A4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Paulo favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Athletico in 1 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Paulo11 matchesAthletico11 matches
1.55 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111.36 goals/match
1.09 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/111.36 goals/match
1.39 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/111.2 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots11/1113.5 shots/match
4.91 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/114.27 shots/match
59.6% ●Possession11/1147.9%
6.18 corners/match ●Corners11/114.64 corners/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 22 Jun 2023, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão PauloAthletico
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headSão Paulo — Athletico
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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