PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Cruzeiro 0–1 Fortaleza · Serie A

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 0–1.

Shots
1210
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
1.111.79
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat Cruzeiro 1–0. Recorded in this match (Cruzeiro – Fortaleza): shots 12–10, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 1.11–1.79, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cruzeiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cruzeiro's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Cruzeiro have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.3% ●PossessionCruzeiro · Fortaleza46.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCruzeiroFortalezaBaseline
Possession55.3%46.5%47.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots10 shotsCruzeiro 12 shots, Fortaleza 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsCruzeiro 3 shots, Fortaleza 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.11 xG1.79 xGCruzeiro 1.11 xG, Fortaleza 1.79 xG
  • Possession68%32%Cruzeiro 68%, Fortaleza 32%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersCruzeiro 5 corners, Fortaleza 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsCruzeiro 9 fouls, Fortaleza 12 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro11 matchesFortaleza11 matches
1.27 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111.18 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 0.73 goals/match
1.66 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/111.57 xG/match
16.3 shots/match ▲Shots11/1115 shots/match
5.27 shots/matchShots on target11/115.45 shots/match
55.3% ●Possession11/1146.5%
7.18 corners/match ●Corners11/115.27 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 22 Jun 2023, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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