PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Fortaleza 1–0 Athletico · Serie A

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 1–0.

Shots
2010
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.51.17
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat Athletico 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza – Athletico): shots 20–10, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.5–1.17, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Athletico have a visible away split

moderate

Athletico's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match14.9 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots10 shotsFortaleza 20 shots, Athletico 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsFortaleza 6 shots, Athletico 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.5 xG1.17 xGFortaleza 1.5 xG, Athletico 1.17 xG
  • Possession53%47%Fortaleza 53%, Athletico 47%
  • Corners7 corners2 cornersFortaleza 7 corners, Athletico 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls18 foulsFortaleza 9 fouls, Athletico 18 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza
2Draws
0Athletico
Athletico — Fortaleza · Serie A1–1
Fortaleza — Athletico · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Athletico in 2 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza14 matchesAthletico14 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 1.29 goals/match
0.79 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.29 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals14/141.48 xG/match
14.9 shots/matchShots14/1414.9 shots/match
5.29 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/144.29 shots/match
46.1%Possession14/14● 47.4%
5.14 corners/match ●Corners14/144.64 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1414.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 10 Jul 2023, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortalezaAthletico
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headFortaleza — Athletico
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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