PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Athletico 2–0 Bahia · Serie A

2–0Historical match

Bahia

DWLLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Athletico won 2–0.

Shots
158
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
2.181.03
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Athletico beat Bahia 2–0. Recorded in this match (Athletico – Bahia): shots 15–8, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 2.18–1.03, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletico have a visible home split

moderate

Athletico's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.1 shots/match14.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Athletico's recent record differs from the season

weak

Athletico's last-five shots average is above their season average.

18 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots18 shots/match14.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots8 shotsAthletico 15 shots, Bahia 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsAthletico 7 shots, Bahia 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.18 xG1.03 xGAthletico 2.18 xG, Bahia 1.03 xG
  • Possession53%47%Athletico 53%, Bahia 47%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersAthletico 5 corners, Bahia 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls9 foulsAthletico 14 fouls, Bahia 9 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Bahia in 2

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico15 matchesBahia15 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/151 goal/match
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/151.53 goals/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/151.18 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots15/1512.9 shots/match
4.47 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/154.13 shots/match
47.7%Possession15/15● 50.8%
4.67 corners/matchCorners15/15● 5.87 corners/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls15/1515.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 17 Jul 2023, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoBahia
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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