PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Palmeiras 3–1 Fortaleza · Serie A

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras won 3–1.

Shots
1411
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
1.371.49
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras beat Fortaleza 3–1. Recorded in this match (Palmeiras – Fortaleza): shots 14–11, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 1.37–1.49, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Palmeiras's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Palmeiras's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Palmeiras have a visible home split

moderate

Palmeiras's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.9 shots/match15.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots11 shotsPalmeiras 14 shots, Fortaleza 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsPalmeiras 7 shots, Fortaleza 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.37 xG1.49 xGPalmeiras 1.37 xG, Fortaleza 1.49 xG
  • Possession64%36%Palmeiras 64%, Fortaleza 36%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersPalmeiras 4 corners, Fortaleza 4 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls28 foulsPalmeiras 17 fouls, Fortaleza 28 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Palmeiras
1Draws
0Fortaleza
Palmeiras — Fortaleza · Serie A4–0
Fortaleza — Palmeiras · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras16 matchesFortaleza16 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.06 goals/match
0.88 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/160.94 goals/match
1.66 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/161.47 xG/match
15.6 shots/matchShots16/1615 shots/match
5.25 shots/matchShots on target16/165.38 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession16/1646.9%
6.69 corners/match ●Corners16/165.38 corners/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Jul 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headPalmeiras — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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