PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Cuiabá 2–1 São Paulo · Serie A

Cuiabá

LLWDW
2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Cuiabá won 2–1.

Shots
1312
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
2.180.95
Possession
28%72%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cuiabá beat São Paulo 2–1. Recorded in this match (Cuiabá – São Paulo): shots 13–12, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 2.18–0.95, possession 28%–72%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cuiabá's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cuiabá's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

São Paulo have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.1%PossessionCuiabá · São Paulo● 59.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCuiabáSão PauloBaseline
Possession43.1%59.8%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots12 shotsCuiabá 13 shots, São Paulo 12 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsCuiabá 6 shots, São Paulo 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.18 xG0.95 xGCuiabá 2.18 xG, São Paulo 0.95 xG
  • Possession28%72%Cuiabá 28%, São Paulo 72%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersCuiabá 2 corners, São Paulo 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls17 foulsCuiabá 9 fouls, São Paulo 17 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Cuiabá
1Draws
1São Paulo
Cuiabá — São Paulo · Serie A1–1
São Paulo — Cuiabá · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cuiabá favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · São Paulo in 7 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cuiabá16 matchesSão Paulo16 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored16/16▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 1 goal/match
1.01 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲ 1.42 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots16/16▲ 15.1 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 4.81 shots/match
43.1%Possession16/16● 59.8%
4.56 corners/matchCorners16/16● 6.06 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Jul 2023, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCuiabáSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headCuiabá — São Paulo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required